深度分析：生猪高体重背景下的供应弹性探讨

Report Overview - The report focuses on the supply elasticity of the pig industry under the background of high pig weights, analyzing the changes in the industry's cost - weight curve and its impact on supply [2] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The industry is experiencing changes such as a decrease in the average feed - to - meat ratio and an improvement in the backfat rate of large pigs due to improved breeding sources and cost control. The report analyzes the supply fluctuations caused by the pursuit of optimal breeding profit at different weights [2] - The current high pig weights are influenced by factors such as low feed - to - meat ratios and feed costs. However, in summer, due to the inverted price difference between standard and fat pigs, the optimal breeding profit weight may decrease, leading to supply fluctuations [14][21] Summary by Directory 1. Comparison of Pig Slaughter Weights in Recent Years - In 2025, the average slaughter weight of pigs reached the third - highest level since 2018. Excluding the extreme weight - gain situations in 2020 and 2021, the current weight is the highest in recent years. The average slaughter weight in early May 2025 was about 128.91kg, a year - on - year increase of 3.06% compared to the same period in 2024 [3] - In the first quarter of 2025, the national pig slaughter volume was 194.76 million heads, a year - on - year increase of 0.11%. The average slaughter weight from January to March increased by 2.18% year - on - year. From the slaughter end, the cumulative slaughter volume of national designated slaughtering enterprises from January to March was 90.56 million heads, a year - on - year increase of 8.14%, and the pre - slaughter average weight increased by 1.44% year - on - year [6] 2. Discussion on the Sustainability of Current High Weights - In late April 2025, the mainstream feed - to - meat ratio in the fattening stage was about 2.55 - 2.59 (from weaning to 125kg), the lowest in the same period in the past five years. Combined with the lowest feed cost in the past five years, it supports the calculation of the lowest - cost slaughter weight [11][14] - Under the assumption that the group always uses the optimal breeding profit weight as the slaughter weight guide, the current industry's optimal breeding profit weight is about 120 - 140kg. In summer, due to the inverted price difference between standard and fat pigs, the optimal breeding profit weight may decrease. For example, when the price difference reaches 0.6 yuan/kg, the optimal breeding profit weight may decrease by 3.8 - 4.2kg; when the price difference is 1.5 yuan/kg, it may decrease by about 11kg [19][21] 3. Supply Fluctuations under the Background of High Weights - When the price difference between standard and fat pigs reaches 0.6 yuan/kg, the theoretical average weight decrease is 3.8 - 4.2kg, accounting for about 2.95% - 3.26% of the current slaughter weight. In practice, the actual weight loss is likely not to exceed 4.2kg [22] - During the process of the increasing price difference between standard and fat pigs in summer, enterprises pursuing optimal profit slaughter weights will face weight - reduction adjustments. From mid - to - late May to early June, there may be a short - term impact of increased slaughter volume. After the peak of the price difference in summer, the weight will return to the track of increasing to the optimal profit average weight, and the supply may increase significantly in the near term, with considerable pressure on the supply in the fourth quarter [22][23]