海外周报第90期：五问“大而美法案”-20250519

Overview of the "One Big Beautiful Bill" - The "One Big Beautiful Bill" was introduced by the U.S. House Committee on May 12, 2025, aiming for tax reform, healthcare cuts, immigration enforcement, and defense enhancement among other goals[2]. - The bill is projected to reduce taxes by approximately $3.3 trillion, increase defense spending by about $150 billion, and cut Medicaid and student loan spending by $1.13 trillion, leading to a long-term GDP growth of 0.6%[3][12]. Current Legislative Progress - As of May 18, 2025, the bill is still under review in the House committee and has not yet reached a full House vote, facing internal divisions within the Republican Party[4][18]. - The bill was rejected in the House Budget Committee with a vote of 16-21 on May 16, 2025, indicating significant opposition from some Republican members[4][19]. Key Dates to Watch - Important upcoming dates include May 18, 2025, for a committee meeting to reconsider the bill, and May 26, 2025, for a potential vote before Memorial Day[5][20]. - If not passed by the end of May, the House may reschedule a vote between June 10-15, 2025, or consider splitting the bill into smaller parts[5][20]. Foreign Investment Perspective - Foreign institutions hold a cautiously optimistic view of the bill, with UBS predicting it may pass by August or September 2025, while JPMorgan estimates it could offset about two-thirds of the negative impact from tariffs on GDP[6][24]. - Financial stocks are expected to benefit from increased fiscal stimulus, with a focus on the mid-section of the yield curve due to anticipated upward pressure on U.S. Treasury yields[6][24].