Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Last week, the price of the main contract of domestic natural rubber futures rose after reaching a high and maintained low - level volatility, with a slight overall increase. In the future, due to factors such as China and the US significantly reducing tariffs on each other, supply support, fair terminal demand, and a slight increase in inventory, the market has a mix of long and short factors, and the trend is not clear. It is expected that the futures market will maintain range - bound volatility in the short term [7][84] - The report suggests that investors should temporarily wait and see, while aggressive investors can consider lightly opening long positions at low prices [8][85] Summary by Directory Price Analysis Futures Price - Last week, the price of the main natural rubber futures contract RU2509 fluctuated between 14,555 - 15,310 yuan/ton. The futures price rose after reaching a high and maintained range - bound volatility, with a slight overall increase. As of the close on the afternoon of May 16, 2025, the contract was reported at 14,905 yuan/ton, up 285 points or 1.95% for the week [6][11] Spot Price - As of May 16, 2025, the spot price of Yunnan State - owned whole - latex (SCRWF) was 14,950 yuan/ton, up 350 yuan/ton from the previous week; the spot price of Thai No. 3 smoked sheets (RSS3) was 20,500 yuan/ton, up 250 yuan/ton from the previous week; the spot price of Vietnamese 3L (SVR3L) was 16,000 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton from the previous week [17] - As of May 16, 2025, the arrival price of natural rubber in Qingdao was 2,320 US dollars/ton, up 20 US dollars/ton from the previous week [21] Basis and Spread - Taking the spot quotation of Shanghai Yunnan State - owned whole - latex (SCRWF) as the spot reference price and the spot price of the main natural rubber contract as the futures reference price, the basis between the two expanded slightly. As of May 16, 2025, the basis was maintained at 45 yuan/ton, an increase of 65 yuan/ton from the previous week [26] - As of May 16, 2025, both the domestic and international prices of natural rubber increased significantly compared to the previous week [30] Important Market Information - In April, the US unadjusted CPI increased by 2.3% year - on - year, lower than expected for the third consecutive month, reaching the lowest level since February 2021; the core CPI was flat at 2.8% year - on - year, in line with market expectations. Traders continued to bet that the Federal Reserve would cut interest rates for the first time in September and for the second time in October [31] - On May 14, the US adjusted its additional tariffs on China, canceling 91% of the additional tariffs on Chinese goods, implementing a 34% reciprocal tariff measure, suspending the imposition of 24% of the tariffs for 90 days, and retaining the remaining 10% of the tariffs. It also lowered the ad - valorem tax rate on small international mail parcels from China from 120% to 54% and cancelled the measure to increase the specific tax from 100 US dollars to 200 US dollars per piece, which was originally scheduled to take effect on June 1 [31] - In April, the US PPI unexpectedly fell by 0.5% month - on - month, with service prices dropping by 0.7%, the largest single - month decline since 2009. Retail sales only increased by 0.1% month - on - month, significantly lower than the strong 1.7% increase in March. Manufacturing output decreased by 0.4% month - on - month, the first decline in six months. The May housing builder confidence index also dropped to the lowest level since the end of 2023 [32] - The number of initial jobless claims in the US remained stable, with 229,000 claims in the previous week, in line with market expectations. The number of continued jobless claims increased by 9,000 to 1.881 million in the previous week [32] - Moody's downgraded the US rating from AAA to AA1 and adjusted the outlook from negative to stable. It stated that the downgrade reflected the increase in government debt, and it was expected that by 2035, the US federal debt burden would rise to 134% of GDP and the federal government deficit would reach 9% of GDP [32] - From May 10th to 11th, China - US economic and trade high - level talks were held in Geneva, Switzerland. The two sides reached important consensuses and made substantial progress, agreeing to establish a China - US economic and trade consultation mechanism. On May 12th, a joint statement was released, stating that both sides agreed to significantly reduce bilateral tariff levels, with the US canceling 91% of the additional tariffs and China canceling 91% of the counter - tariffs accordingly [33] - The State Council Tariff Commission adjusted the additional tariff measures on imported goods originating from the US, reducing the tariff rate from 34% to 10%, suspending the implementation of 24% of the additional tariffs on the US for 90 days, and stopping the implementation of the additional tariff measures stipulated in Announcements No. 5 and No. 6 of 2025 [34] - In 2024, the average annual salary of employees in non - private urban units nationwide was 124,110 yuan, with a nominal increase of 2.8% and a comparable - caliber increase of 2.6%; the average annual salary of employees in private urban units was 69,476 yuan, with a nominal increase of 1.7% and a comparable - caliber increase of 4% [34] - In April, the retail sales of the national passenger car market reached 1.755 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 14.5%, and the export of new - energy passenger cars was 189,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 44.2% [35] - In April, China's automobile production and sales were 2.619 million and 2.59 million vehicles respectively, a year - on - year increase of 8.9% and 9.8% respectively. Among them, the production and sales of new - energy vehicles were 1.251 million and 1.226 million vehicles respectively, a year - on - year increase of 43.8% and 44.2% respectively. In April, automobile exports were 517,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 2.6%. From January to April 2025, China's automobile production and sales were 10.175 million and 10.06 million vehicles respectively, a year - on - year increase of 12.9% and 10.8% respectively [35] - In April 2025, China's heavy - truck market sales were about 90,000 vehicles, a month - on - month decrease of 19% and a year - on - year increase of about 9.4% compared to 82,300 vehicles in the same period last year. From January to April, the cumulative sales of China's heavy - truck market were about 355,000 vehicles, showing the same level year - on - year [36] - Since the implementation of the automobile trade - in policy in 2024, the cumulative number of subsidy applications has exceeded 10 million. As of May 11, 2025, the number of subsidy applications for automobile trade - in in 2025 reached 3.225 million, with new - energy vehicles accounting for more than 53% [36] - According to the ANRPC's March 2025 report, the global natural rubber production in March was expected to increase by 0.9% to 798,000 tons, a decrease of 15.6% from the previous month; the consumption was expected to decrease by 0.1% to 1.36 million tons, an increase of 14.6% from the previous month. In 2025, the global natural rubber production was expected to increase by 0.4% year - on - year to 14.897 million tons, and the consumption was expected to increase by 1.5% year - on - year to 15.59 million tons [36][37] Supply - side Situation - As of March 31, 2025, the production in the main producing areas of Indonesia increased slightly compared to the previous month; the production in Vietnam decreased slightly; the production in Malaysia and India decreased significantly; the production in Thailand decreased significantly; the main producing areas in China were gradually starting to tap rubber and the output was increasing. The total production of the main natural rubber producing countries in March 2025 was 489,300 tons, a significant decrease from the previous month [41] - As of March 31, 2025, China's monthly synthetic rubber production was 856,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 18.1% [45] - As of March 31, 2025, China's cumulative synthetic rubber production was 2.33 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.5% [48] - As of March 31, 2025, China's imports of new pneumatic rubber tires were 920 tons, a month - on - month increase of 17.95% [51] Demand - side Situation - As of May 15, 2025, the operating rate of semi - steel tire enterprises was 78.33%, an increase of 19.98% from the previous week; the operating rate of all - steel tire enterprises was 65.09%, an increase of 20.32% from the previous week [54] - As of April 30, 2025, China's monthly automobile production was 2.6188 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 8.86% and a month - on - month decrease of 12.88% [58] - As of April 30, 2025, China's monthly automobile sales were 2.5896 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 9.78% and a month - on - month decrease of 11.18% [61] - As of April 30, 2025, China's monthly heavy - truck sales were 87,667 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 6.52% and a month - on - month decrease of 21.36% [66] - As of March 31, 2025, China's monthly production of tire casings was 107.446 million pieces, a year - on - year increase of 4.4% [69] - As of March 31, 2025, China's exports of new pneumatic rubber tires were 62.29 million pieces, a month - on - month increase of 42.34% [75] Inventory - side Situation - As of May 16, 2025, the natural rubber futures inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 200,270 tons, a decrease of 230 tons from the previous week [82] - As of May 11, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 1.355 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 500 tons or 0.05%. Among them, the total social inventory of dark rubber was 830,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.7%; the total social inventory of light rubber was 525,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1% [82] - As of May 11, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in the Qingdao area was 618,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4,500 tons or 0.73%. Among them, the bonded area inventory was 90,000 tons, an increase of 5.89%; the general trade inventory was 528,700 tons, a decrease of 0.09% [82] Fundamental Analysis - On the supply side, the main natural rubber producing areas in the world are gradually starting to tap rubber. Recently, the main producing areas at home and abroad have been affected by bad weather, which has affected the tapping work, resulting in less raw material output and firm prices, strengthening cost support. In April 2025, China's imports of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) were 685,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 30.98%; the cumulative imports from January to April were 2.869 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 23.2% [83] - On the demand side, last week, the operating rates of semi - steel and all - steel tires rebounded significantly. However, the enterprises' sales performance was poor, and the finished - product inventory continued to accumulate, reaching a historical high. In the terminal automobile market, in April, China's monthly automobile production and sales increased slightly year - on - year but decreased slightly month - on - month; the heavy - truck market sales increased by 6.52% year - on - year but decreased by 21.36% month - on - month; the cumulative heavy - truck sales from January to April were the same as the previous year, indicating fair terminal consumption. The trade - in policy in various regions of China continued to promote terminal consumption [83] - In terms of inventory, last week, the inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange continued to decline slightly, while China's natural rubber social inventory and the total inventory in Qingdao continued to increase slightly [83] Market Outlook - Last week, the price of the main domestic natural rubber futures contract rose after reaching a high and maintained low - level volatility, with a slight overall increase. In the future, the market has a mix of long and short factors, and the trend is not clear. It is expected that the futures market will maintain range - bound volatility in the short term. Key factors to focus on in the future include the impact of the macro and policy aspects, the weather changes in the main producing areas, the tapping situation in the main producing areas at home and abroad, the rubber import situation, the demand change situation, and the inventory change situation [7][84] Operation Strategy - It is expected that the main natural rubber futures contract will maintain range - bound volatility this week. It is recommended that investors temporarily wait and see, while aggressive investors can consider lightly opening long positions at low prices [8][85]
多空交织趋势不明，胶价维持区间震荡
Hua Long Qi Huo·2025-05-19 06:00