Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Last week, the rebar 2510 contract rose 1.52%. Although the molten iron output decreased slightly, the supply remained at a high level, while the demand faced seasonal decline pressure. Driven by the macro - factors, steel prices rebounded slightly last week. Recently, steel prices are mainly stable and volatile, and there may still be a small rebound space [4][34]. 3. Summary by Directory Price Analysis - As of May 16, 2025, the spot price of rebar in Shanghai was 3,200 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and in Tianjin, it was 3,210 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [9]. Important Market Information - The Chinese side believes that the US practice of imposing 232 tariffs on imported automobiles, steel, aluminum and launching a 232 investigation on imported drugs is a typical act of unilateralism and protectionism, which not only damages the rights and interests of other countries and undermines the multilateral trading system based on rules, but also does no good to the development of its own industries. The Chinese side urges the US to stop the 232 tariff measures as soon as possible [14]. Supply - side Situation - According to Mysteel data, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills last week was 84.15%, a decrease of 0.47% month - on - month and an increase of 2.65% year - on - year; the blast furnace ironmaking capacity utilization rate was 91.76%, a decrease of 0.33% month - on - month and an increase of 3.19% year - on - year; the steel mill profitability rate was 59.31%, an increase of 0.44 percentage points month - on - month and an increase of 7.36% year - on - year; the daily average molten iron output was 244.77 million tons, a decrease of 0.87 million tons month - on - month. The overall operating rate of 87 section steel production lines in Tangshan last week was 55.93%, an increase of 13.56% month - on - month, and the section steel capacity utilization rate was 51.68%, an increase of 3.86% month - on - month. The capacity utilization rate of 523 coking coal mines last week was 89.3%, a decrease of 0.7% month - on - month. The daily average output of raw coal was 200.6 million tons, a decrease of 1.5 million tons month - on - month, and the raw coal inventory was 606.8 million tons, an increase of 27.0 million tons month - on - month [4][33]. Demand - side Situation - In April 2025, the current value of the non - manufacturing PMI in the construction industry was 51.9, a decrease of 1.5% month - on - month; the current value of the steel circulation industry purchasing manager index of Lange Steel was 48.8, a decrease of 3.8% month - on - month [22]. Inventory - side Situation No specific inventory data was provided in the content other than the inventory - related section title. Fundamental Analysis - According to the data of the Pilbara Ports Authority (PPA) in Australia, the iron ore exports from Port Hedland decreased to 46.6938 billion tons in April 2025 from 50.6610 billion tons in March; the spodumene concentrate exports decreased to 109,789 tons from 143,640 tons in March. Among them, the iron ore exports from Port Hedland to China in April were 41.1047 billion tons, compared with 41.1912 billion tons in March [33]. 后市展望 - Last week, the molten iron output decreased slightly, but the supply remained at a high level, while the demand faced seasonal decline pressure. Driven by the macro - factors, steel prices rebounded slightly last week. Recently, steel prices are mainly stable and volatile, and there may still be a small rebound space [4][34]. Trading Strategy - It is recommended to treat the market as stable, volatile and rebounding [5][35].
螺纹周报-20250519
Hua Long Qi Huo·2025-05-19 06:06