甲醇周报：基本面改善有限，反弹还需宏观面提振-20250519

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the fundamentals of methanol had limited improvement, and the futures rebounded due to macro - level support. This week, the fundamentals remain unchanged, with supply likely to decrease, demand expected to be weak, and port inventory likely to rise while enterprise inventory may fall. The improvement in the macro - level due to the easing of Sino - US tariffs may be the main driver for methanol, and a long - position operation can be considered [6][8][9] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Methanol Trend Review - Last week, methanol futures oscillated and rebounded. The weighted methanol closed at 2,298 yuan/ton on Friday afternoon, up 2.64% from the previous week. In the spot market, the overall domestic methanol market rose, but the spot basis in the coastal market declined rapidly, and the atmosphere in the inland market weakened. As of May 19, the methanol prices in different regions showed different trends, with the price in Jiangsu Taicang rising 0.7% to 2,440 yuan/ton, that in Guangdong falling 0.79% to 2,399 yuan/ton, that in Ordos North Line dropping 1.54% to 2,116 yuan/ton, and that in Shandong Jining decreasing 3.06% to 2,316 yuan/ton [11] 2. Methanol Fundamental Analysis - Production: Last week, domestic methanol production decreased. The number of maintenance cases exceeded restarts, with the output at 1,991,055 tons, a decrease of 66,720 tons from the previous week, and the capacity utilization rate at 8.47%, a 4.01% drop [14] - Downstream Industry: The olefin industry's operation rate remained low. As of May 15, the weekly average capacity utilization rate of MTO plants in the Jiangsu - Zhejiang region was 59.78%, up 0.70 percentage points from the previous week. The capacity utilization rates of dimethyl ether, chlorides, and formaldehyde showed different trends [16][17] - Enterprise Inventory: As of May 14, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 335,800 tons, up 31,900 tons from the previous period, a 10.48% increase, and the order backlog was 273,600 tons, up 35,800 tons, a 15.06% increase. The inventory and order backlog in different regions showed different changes [18] - Port Inventory: As of May 14, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample ports was 483,900 tons, a decrease of 78,000 tons from the previous period, a 13.88% drop. The inventory in different regions showed different trends [26] - Profit: Last week, the average profit of domestic methanol samples showed mixed trends. The profit of coal - based methanol in Inner Mongolia increased by 18.41% to 244.40 yuan/ton, while the profit of coke - oven gas - based methanol in Hebei decreased by 22.13% to 316.67 yuan/ton [29] 3. Methanol Trend Outlook - Supply: This week, the number of maintenance cases will still exceed restarts. It is expected that China's methanol output will be about 1.9706 million tons, and the capacity utilization rate will be about 87.44%, a decrease from last week [31] - Downstream Demand: The olefin industry's operation rate will remain low. The capacity utilization rates of dimethyl ether, acetic acid, formaldehyde, and chlorides are expected to show different trends [32][33] - Enterprise Inventory: It is expected that the enterprise inventory will slightly decrease to 303,200 tons [34] - Port Inventory: It is expected that the port methanol inventory will increase this week [34]