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1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not mention the industry investment rating [4][10][16] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply and seasonal factors will cause marginal tightening pressure on the capital market in May, but the effective hedging by the central bank and the change in the expectations of large - scale banks will help maintain the stability of the capital market. Bond market interest rates are expected to fluctuate, and there may be short - term repair opportunities [4][10][20] - Credit bonds continued to decline in the first - level issuance, with a small net outflow. In the secondary market, the yield curve steepened, spreads narrowed, and the turnover rate increased. It is recommended to find high - yield entities [16][17][20] - The performance of convertible bonds was relatively good last week. It is recommended to allocate between technology and defensive sectors while avoiding low - quality and low - price bonds [19][20][4] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Fixed Income Market Observation and Thinking 3.1.1. Interest - rate Bonds: How to View Future Capital Market - There is marginal tightening pressure on the capital market due to increased interest - rate bond supply in May and June and the slowdown of wealth management product growth in May and June [9] - The central bank's early implementation of ten monetary easing policies in May and the change in the expectations of large - scale banks are expected to effectively hedge the marginal tightening of the capital market, maintaining bond market interest rates in a fluctuating state [10] 3.1.2. Credit Bonds: Continue to Descend to Find High - Yield Entities - From May 12 to May 18, the first - level issuance of credit bonds was 1205 billion yuan, with a net outflow of 175 billion yuan. The average coupon rates of AAA, AA+, and AA/AA - grades changed, with the issuance frequency of AA/AA - grade new bonds remaining low [16] - Yields of various grades and maturities generally declined, with short - term yields dropping more significantly. Spreads narrowed, term spreads widened, and provincial credit spreads of urban investment bonds and industry spreads of industrial bonds both narrowed [17] - The turnover rate in the secondary market increased to 1.97%. The number of high - discount bonds decreased slightly, mainly real - estate enterprise bonds [17] 3.1.3. Convertible Bonds: Differentiated Convertible Bond Trading, Recommend a Dumbbell Strategy - Last week, the stock market indices showed a differentiated trend. The CSI Convertible Bond Index rose 0.32%, the parity center decreased by 4.7%, and the conversion premium rate center increased by 4.3%. The average daily trading volume increased [18][19][20] - It is recommended to allocate between technology and defensive sectors while avoiding low - quality and low - price bonds [20] 3.1.4. This Week's Attention Points and Important Data Releases - China will announce the May LPR, and the Eurozone will announce the preliminary value of the May consumer confidence index [21] 3.1.5. Estimation of This Week's Interest - rate Bond Supply Scale - This week, it is expected to issue 9045 billion yuan of interest - rate bonds, including 5560 billion yuan of treasury bonds, 2485 billion yuan of local bonds, and about 1000 billion yuan of policy - bank financial bonds [22][23] 3.2. Interest - rate Bond Review and Outlook: Increasing Disturbing Factors in the Bond Market 3.2.1. Central Bank's Injection and Capital Market Conditions - The central bank's reverse repurchase volume decreased during the month - end period, with a net withdrawal of 4751 billion yuan in the open - market operations. Capital interest rates fluctuated and generally increased, and the trading volume of inter - bank pledged repurchase increased [27][28] - The primary - market pressure of certificates of deposit eased, and the secondary - market yields increased with the rise of capital interest rates [33][34] 3.2.2. Increasing Disturbing Factors in the Bond Market - This week, the bond market was mainly in adjustment due to factors such as the unexpected easing of tariff issues, the need to confirm the central bank's easing attitude and the trend of the capital market, and the boost to the stock market by policies. Most interest - rate bonds with various maturities increased in yield [43][44] 3.3. High - frequency Data: Most Commodity Prices Rebounded - On the production side, the post - holiday operating rates mostly rebounded. On the demand side, the year - on - year growth rates of passenger - car wholesale and retail sales increased, land transactions rose, and the export index changed [52] - In terms of prices, crude oil and copper - aluminum prices increased, coal prices were differentiated, and downstream consumer prices also changed [53] 3.4. Credit Bond Review: Outperforming Interest - rate Bonds Relatively, with a Significantly Increased Turnover Rate 3.4.1. Negative Information Monitoring - There were no bond defaults or overdue cases this week. There were no cases of corporate downgrades in terms of subject ratings, outlooks, or bond ratings. However, there were overseas rating downgrades and major negative events involving real - estate and other enterprises [70][71][73] 3.4.2. First - level Issuance: Small Net Outflow, Significantly Decreased Coupon Rates of Medium - and High - grade New Bonds - The first - level issuance of credit bonds decreased, with a small net outflow. The coupon rates of medium - and high - grade bonds decreased, while those of low - grade bonds fluctuated [16][73][74] 3.4.3. Secondary Trading: Steepening of the Yield Curve, Comprehensive Narrowing of Spreads - Credit bond valuations generally declined, especially at the short - end. The yield curve steepened, and spreads narrowed by about 5bp on average. Urban investment bond spreads narrowed significantly, and industrial bond spreads also narrowed slightly [17][77][81]