铁矿石：宏观预期回暖，矿价估值修复

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Due to the unexpected easing of Sino - US trade relations, the short - term trading focus tends to trade strong reality and emotional repair. With the short - term domestic macro - policy in a complete vacuum, the expectation of incremental policies is weak, demand has basically peaked, and as the supply side continues to recover, it is expected to be more dominated by macro - emotional repair in the short term, with the influence of fundamentals decreasing [3][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Logic - The unexpected easing of Sino - US trade relations has led to an upward revision of the valuation of the black series. The suspension of 90 - day (24% reciprocal tariffs) has strengthened the behavior of seizing exports to the US, and the market has revised its expectation of export decline. The price of the black series has risen collectively, and the price of iron ore has rebounded more strongly due to high demand, high discount, and inventory depletion [3]. Supply - The overall shipment of foreign mines is stable, and the year - on - year decline is narrowing. May is the peak season for foreign mine shipments, and the shipments of mainstream mines are expected to maintain a steady upward trend, with the supporting force on the supply side weakening marginally [3]. Demand - Domestic demand is at a high level in the same historical period. The hot metal has decreased to 244.8 (- 0.87) month - on - month, indicating a short - term peak in demand. However, the profitability rate of steel mills is high and the export expectation has been revised upwards. It is expected that the hot metal will decline at a high level with a relatively low downward slope, and the short - term impact on prices is small [3]. Inventory - Given the current high domestic demand level, the port inventory in May will remain relatively stable or tend to be depleted. However, the overall inventory is at a high level, and the phased de - stocking at a high inventory level is difficult to provide upward driving force [3]. Strategy - It is recommended to conduct range operations, with the overall price still in a range - bound pattern and the price center shifting upwards periodically. The price pressure range of the i2509 contract is 720 - 750 yuan/ton, and the price range of the foreign FE06 contract is 98 - 102 US dollars/ton [4].