纯碱玻璃周报：市场情绪扰动为主，纯碱玻璃反弹空间有限-20250519

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the soda ash market, the short - term price has limited upside and downside space. The supply is expected to decline due to increased maintenance, but the cost support is weakening. The demand is stable to weak, and there is a risk of oversupply after the rush - installation period. For the glass market, the apparent demand has decreased significantly, the price is expected to decline, and the fundamentals lack obvious positive drivers, so the market will maintain a weak operation [4][51] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Soda Ash Market 3.1.1 Price - Futures price: From May 12 - 16, 2025, the prices of 2505, 2509, and 2601 contracts decreased by 27, 29, and 19 respectively. The 5 - 9 spread increased by 2, and the 9 - 1 spread decreased by 10 [6] - Spot price: The prices of heavy alkali in some regions remained stable, while the price of heavy alkali in Qinghai increased by 20. The price of light alkali in Central China remained unchanged [6] 3.1.2 Supply - Capacity utilization: The overall capacity utilization decreased from 87.74% to 80.27%. The capacity utilization of the combined - soda process decreased from 85.12% to 74.23%, and that of the ammonia - soda process decreased from 83.52% to 82.27% [7] - Output: The weekly output decreased from 74.07 million tons to 67.77 million tons, a decrease of 8.51%. The output of heavy alkali decreased from 40.79 million tons to 36.99 million tons, a decrease of 9.32%, and the output of light alkali decreased from 33.28 million tons to 30.78 million tons, a decrease of 7.51% [7] 3.1.3 Demand - For glass: The daily output of float glass increased from 15.58 million tons to 15.67 million tons, and the daily output of photovoltaic glass remained at 9.878 million tons [7] - Apparent demand for light alkali: It decreased from 31.88 million tons to 30.82 million tons, a decrease of 3.32% [7] 3.1.4 Inventory - Total inventory: It increased from 170.13 million tons to 171.2 million tons, an increase of 0.63%. The inventory of heavy alkali increased from 87.22 million tons to 88.33 million tons, an increase of 1.27%, and the inventory of light alkali decreased slightly from 82.91 million tons to 82.87 million tons, a decrease of 0.05% [7] - Social inventory: It decreased from 37.59 million tons to 36.3 million tons, a decrease of 3.43% [7] 3.1.5 Profit - Combined - soda process profit: It increased from 275 yuan/ton to 287.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.55% - Ammonia - soda process profit: It increased from 50.4 yuan/ton to 65.4 yuan/ton, an increase of 29.76% [7] 3.2 Glass Market 3.2.1 Price - Futures price: From May 12 - 16, 2025, the prices of 2505, 2509, and 2601 contracts decreased by 28, 11, and 1 respectively. The 5 - 9 spread decreased by 17, and the 9 - 1 spread decreased by 12 [53] - Spot price: The prices of glass in most regions decreased. The price of 5mm large - plate glass in Shahe decreased by 44, and the prices in North China, Central China, and East China decreased by 20, 10, and 20 respectively [53] 3.2.2 Supply - Capacity utilization: It remained at 75%, and the daily output increased from 15.58 million tons to 15.67 million tons. The weekly output remained stable at around 109.17 million tons [54] 3.2.3 Demand - Apparent demand: It increased from 96.34 million tons to 106.56 million tons, an increase of 11%. However, the orders of downstream processing plants were differentiated [54] 3.2.4 Inventory - Total inventory: It increased from 6756 million heavy - cases to 6808.2 million heavy - cases, an increase of 1%. The inventory of Shahe traders decreased from 376 million heavy - cases to 352 million heavy - cases, a decrease of 6% [54] 3.2.5 Profit - Profit of different production processes: The profit of natural - gas production decreased from - 147.85 yuan/ton to - 149.52 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1%. The profit of coal - gas production decreased from 147.23 yuan/ton to 104.2 yuan/ton, a decrease of 29%. The profit of petroleum - coke production decreased from - 44.6 yuan/ton to - 70.02 yuan/ton, a decrease of 57% [54]