中泰期货尿素周报：尿素保供稳价获得广泛共识，现货价格将会按照保供稳价方向运行-20250519

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The urea spot price will move in the direction of ensuring supply and stabilizing prices, and the urea futures price is expected to fluctuate around the spot price. The consensus on ensuring supply and stabilizing prices in the urea industry chain has laid a solid foundation for the stability of domestic urea spot prices [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Urea and Related Product Prices - Domestic Urea Spot Price: Plots show the price trends of urea in regions like Henan, Shanxi (small and large particles), and Sichuan from 2021 - 2025 [8][9]. - International Urea Price and Spread: Illustrates the FOB prices of small - particle urea in China and the Middle East, as well as the profit of Shandong factory for small - particle urea and the cost difference between the Middle East and Shandong factory from 2021 - 2025 [11][12]. - Unit Nitrogen Element Price and Spread: Displays the price of nitrogen in synthetic ammonia in Hubei, ammonium chloride in Henan, and the spread between liquid ammonia - urea and urea - ammonium chloride from 2021 - 2025 [14][15]. - Phosphate and Potassium Fertilizer Prices: Presents the price trends of monoammonium phosphate, diammonium phosphate, 60% potassium fertilizer, and 62% port potassium fertilizer in Hubei from 2021 - 2025 [17][18]. - Urea Futures Basis and Inter - month Spread: Shows the price of the urea 09 - contract futures, the basis of the 09 - contract, and the 9 - 1 spread from 2021 - 2025 [20][21]. 3.2 Urea Supply - Domestic Urea Output: Shows the weekly average daily output, cumulative output since the beginning of the year, weekly average daily output of natural - gas - based and coal - based urea from 2021 - 2025. From May 8 - 14 to May 29 - June 4, 2025, the weekly average daily output increased from 19.92 to 20.43 million tons [25][26]. - Coal Price and Urea Profit: Displays the price trends of anthracite and bituminous coal, as well as the profits of Shanxi fixed - bed and Henan new - process urea production from 2021 - 2025 [28][29]. - Urea Factory Inventory and Apparent Consumption: Illustrates the enterprise inventory, daily average apparent consumption from the enterprise perspective, order volume, and domestic daily average apparent consumption of urea from 2021 - 2025. As of a certain period, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 81.72 million tons, a decrease of 24.84 million tons (- 23.31%) [31][32]. 3.3 Urea Demand - Compound Fertilizer: Shows the compound fertilizer enterprise's operating rate, inventory, import, export, and net export volume from 2021 - 2025. The domestic compound fertilizer capacity utilization rate rebounded slightly to 40.26%, a month - on - month increase of 2.36% [36][37]. - Compound Fertilizer Upstream: Displays the weekly output, domestic supply volume, and cumulative domestic supply volume of monoammonium phosphate and diammonium phosphate, as well as the operating rate, port inventory, domestic supply volume, and cumulative domestic supply volume of domestic potassium fertilizer from 2021 - 2025 [38][39][42]. - Melamine: Presents the weekly output, price, melamine/urea price ratio, and domestic net retention volume of melamine from 2021 - 2025 [44][45]. - Urea Export: Shows the monthly and cumulative export volume of urea from 2021 - 2025 [47][48]. 3.4 Urea Inventory - Enterprise and Port Inventory: Illustrates the enterprise inventory, port inventory, total enterprise + port inventory, and the number of urea warehouse receipts from 2021 - 2025 [49][50].