华金期货生猪周报-20250519

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is the Huajin Futures Weekly Report on Live Pigs, dated May 19, 2025 [1] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report Group 3: Core View - The live pig market has no obvious boost and is mainly in a weak consolidation trend. Supply is sufficient, and demand is expected to decline further as the weather gets hotter [2] Group 4: Futures and Spot Data - Futures data: LH2507 closed at 13405, down 90 (-0.7%); LH2509 (the main contract) closed at 13660, down 265 (-1.9%); LH2511 closed at 13420, down 205 (-1.5%) [2][5] - Spot data: The national average price of commercial pig slaughter was 14.56 yuan/kg, down 0.18 (-1.2%); the price in Henan was 14.9 yuan/kg, down 0.17 (-1.1%). The average slaughter weight of sample enterprises was 124.12 kg, with no change [2] Group 5: Spread and Basis - 09 - 07 spread was 244, down 186; 11 - 09 spread was -240, up 60. The basis for July was 1495, down 80; the basis for September was 1240, up 95. The number of live pig warehouse receipts was 696, a decrease of 9 [2][10] Group 6: Supply - Side Analysis - In early May, the slaughter progress of large - scale farms was slow, and it is expected to increase in the middle and late May. Second - round fattening pigs and large pigs from retail farmers are being sold, maintaining an adequate market supply [2] - Last year from September to December, the inventory of breeding sows increased monthly, and the live pig production capacity was restored. It is expected that the inventory of commercial pigs will continue to increase month - on - month in May. The inventory of pigs weighing 7 - 49 kg and over 140 kg decreased [20] - The planned slaughter of large - scale enterprises in May increased slightly. With the decline in the price advantage of large pigs and the willingness of retail farmers to sell, the commercial pig slaughter in May is expected to increase month - on - month [22] Group 7: Demand - Side Analysis - Slaughter enterprises purchase according to demand. As the weather gets hotter, there is an expectation of a further decline in the slaughter enterprises'开工 rate [2] - The slaughter enterprises'开工 rate was 28.11%, a weekly decrease of 0.43 percentage points. The fresh - meat sales rate of key slaughter enterprises was 89.07%, a decrease of 0.18 percentage points. The frozen - meat storage rate of domestic key slaughter enterprises was 17.28%, a slight increase of 0.01 percentage points [29] Group 8: Price and Profit - The national average price of live pig slaughter was 14.71 yuan/kg, down 0.06 yuan/kg from last week. The average slaughter weight of outer - ternary pigs was 124.12 kg, with little change from last week [22] - The national average weekly standard - fat price difference was 0.026 yuan/kg, slightly lower than last week. The price centers of standard and fat pigs both declined slightly [27] - The average weekly profit of self - breeding and self - raising was 122.23 yuan/head, an increase of 8.73 yuan/head from last week; the average weekly profit of purchasing piglets for breeding was 56.96 yuan/head, an increase of 24.99 yuan/head from last week [39] Group 9: Market Information Summary - Supply: Large - scale farms had a slow slaughter plan in the early part of the month and gradually increased the volume in the middle. The market supply is sufficient [41] - Demand: Market demand is average. With the rising temperature, it is the off - season for consumption, and there is still room for the slaughter rate to be adjusted downward [41] - Inventory: The storage capacity of slaughter enterprises is at a low level, and some unsold products are passively stored [41] - Policy: The Minister of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, Han Jun, issued the No. 1 order of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs in 2025, announcing the "Administrative Measures for the Production and Operation License of Breeding Livestock and Poultry", which will be implemented on July 1, 2025 [41] - Epidemic: There are sporadic epidemic situations in some southern regions [41] - Market sentiment: The pig price fluctuates, second - round fattening is on the sidelines, and the short - term trend is stable and weak [41]