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环球市场动态:内地财政政策仍存进一步发力空间
citic securities·2025-05-19 07:18

Market Performance - Chinese stock market showed poor performance with major financial sectors dragging down the index, while US stocks continued to strengthen, with the S&P 500 gaining 0.7% and the Nasdaq rising 0.5%[3][9] - European markets experienced positive sentiment, with the Stoxx 600 index closing up 0.42% and the UK FTSE 100 index rising 0.59%[9] Economic Indicators - China's fiscal policy has significantly intensified since 2025, with the deficit rate reaching historical highs; Q1 fiscal spending increased by 5.6% year-on-year, while revenue decreased by 2.6%[6] - The US consumer confidence index fell to 50.8, marking the second-lowest level on record, amid rising inflation expectations[30] Commodity and Currency Trends - Oil prices rebounded, with NYMEX crude oil closing at $62.49, up 1.41%, while gold prices fell to $3,187.2 per ounce, marking a 4.1% decline for the week, the largest drop in six months[27] - The US dollar index rose by 0.21% to 101.09, marking four consecutive weeks of gains[27] Fixed Income Market - US Treasury yields saw slight increases, with the 10-year yield rising to 4.48%, while Moody's downgraded the US credit rating from Aaa to Aa1 due to rising government debt levels[30] - The Chinese bond market showed minor fluctuations, with the 2-year yield at 4.00% and the 10-year yield at 4.48%[29] Sector Performance - In the Hong Kong market, the Hang Seng Index fell by 0.46%, driven by declines in major financial stocks and technology shares, while healthcare stocks gained 1.5%[11] - The pet economy sector is expected to continue growing, driven by stable overseas demand and domestic market shifts towards local brands[19]