中原期货晨会纪要-20250519

1. Market Index Performance 1.1 Global Stock Indices - The Dow Jones Industrial Index rose 331.99 points (0.784%) to 42,654.74 [2]. - The Nasdaq Index increased by 98.78 points (0.517%) to 19,211.10 [2]. - The S&P 500 climbed 41.45 points (0.701%) to 5,958.38 [2]. - The Hang Seng Index fell 108.11 points (-0.461%) to 23,345.05 [2]. 1.2 Other Macro - indicators - SHIBOR overnight rose 0.25 to 1.65, a 17.806% increase [2]. - The US Dollar Index dropped 0.244 points (-0.241%) to 100.74 [2]. - The US Dollar to RMB (CFETS) remained unchanged at 7.20 [2]. 1.3 Commodity Futures (International) - COMEX Gold decreased by $38.60 (-1.190%) to $3,205.30 [2]. - COMEX Silver fell $0.36 (-1.098%) to $32.43 [2]. - LME Copper declined $137 (-1.431%) to $9,440.00 [2]. 1.3 Commodity Futures (Domestic) - Gold futures dropped 2.80 (-0.372%) to 749.00 [2]. - Silver futures fell 8.0 (-0.099%) to 8093.00 [2]. - Copper futures decreased 470.0 (-0.601%) to 77670.00 [2]. 1.4 Energy and Chemical Futures (Domestic) - Crude oil futures rose 6.30 (1.381%) to 462.50 [4]. - Fuel oil futures increased 19.0 (0.636%) to 3008.00 [4]. - Natural rubber futures dropped 55.0 (-0.369%) to 14850.00 [4]. 1.5 Agricultural Futures (Domestic) - Yellow soybean No.1 futures rose 17.0 (0.408%) to 4185.00 [4]. - White sugar futures fell 14.0 (-0.239%) to 5841.00 [4]. - Cotton No.1 futures dropped 10.0 (-0.075%) to 13380.00 [4]. 2. Macro - economic News 2.1 Domestic News - Central bank officials support Beijing's financial development, including promoting RMB internationalization and strengthening the Beijing Stock Exchange [7]. - China's domestic refined oil prices are expected to drop by about 230 yuan/ton on May 19 [7]. - China - US freight volume has recovered after mutual tariff cuts, and US business cooperation is increasing [7]. - China aims to grow its data industry to 7.5 trillion yuan by 2030 and build a data infrastructure system by 2029 [8]. - China will impose anti - dumping duties on imported copolymerized polyoxymethylene from the US, EU, Taiwan region, and Japan starting May 19 [8]. - China's cold - chain logistics showed growth in Q1 2025, with a 4.0% increase in total value and a 3.9% increase in revenue [8]. 2.2 International News - US President Trump urges the Fed to cut interest rates and criticizes Fed Chair Powell [9]. - US Treasury Secretary responds to Moody's downgrade of US credit rating and plans to attend a G7 meeting [9]. 3. Morning Views on Main Varieties 3.1 Agricultural Products - Sugar: Suggest trading in the 5800 - 5900 yuan/ton range, with a key support at 5830 yuan/ton [12]. - Corn: Maintain a short - selling strategy, watch for a break below 2300 yuan/ton [12]. - Eggs: Consider short - selling, with a focus on the price range and potential support [12]. - Hogs: Hold short positions, and use pre - holiday rebounds for shorting [12]. 3.2 Energy and Chemicals - Caustic soda: Expect stable prices in East China with local fluctuations [14]. - Urea: The market may continue high - level oscillations, with opportunities for positive spreads [14]. 3.3 Industrial Metals - Copper and aluminum: Prices rebounded but faced resistance at previous gaps [14]. - Alumina: Prices are expected to be strong, with a focus on the 3100 - 3200 yuan/ton resistance [14]. 3.4 Others - Steel products: Steel prices may fluctuate at low levels, with specific price ranges for different products [16]. - Ferroalloys: Prices are expected to oscillate at low levels [16]. - Coking coal and coke: Continue weak oscillations in the short term [16]. - Lithium carbonate: Hold short positions, watch for potential technical rebounds [16]. 3.5 Options and Finance - Stock indices: The market is likely to be volatile, with specific trading strategies for futures and options [17][18]. 4. Research Analysts 4.1 Agricultural Products - Li Na (F3060165, Z0016368) and Liu Sikui (F3033884, Z0011291) [22]. 4.2 Industrial Products - Liu Peiyang (F0290318, Z0011155), Peng Bohan (F3076814, Z0016415), and Lin Na (F03099603, Z0020978) [22]. 4.3 Options and Finance - Ding Wen (F3066473, Z0014838) and Li Weihong (F0231193, Z0017182) [22].