基础化工行业投资策略周报：拜耳或推动孟山都破产，纺服抢出口拉动涤纶放量-20250519

Core Insights - Bayer may push Monsanto towards bankruptcy, potentially reshaping the glyphosate industry landscape [6] - The textile and apparel sector is experiencing a surge in exports, leading to increased production of polyester [6] Industry Overview - From May 12 to May 16, the SW basic chemical sector rose by 1.82%, outperforming the Wind All A Index by 1.10 percentage points, with notable performance in nylon, viscose, and polyester [13][22] - The outlook for 2025 suggests a potential upward shift in domestic demand due to increased policy support and a global trend of interest rate cuts [13] Key Sub-industry Tracking - Glyphosate: Bayer is preparing to settle large-scale lawsuits regarding its herbicide, which could lead to a significant restructuring of the glyphosate market if Monsanto goes bankrupt [6] - Polyester: The average price of polyester filament yarn increased by 7.47% year-on-year, with a production and sales rate of 125.72%, up by 50.6 percentage points from the previous reporting period [6][17] Price and Market Trends - Among 336 tracked chemical products, 30% saw price increases, with notable rises in butadiene, SBS, PX (CFR), and styrene [36] - The average cost of polyester filament yarn is reported at 5705.31 CNY/ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 391.05 CNY/ton [17] Recommendations - Focus on cyclical recovery in supply restructuring, domestic demand recovery, and export chains in agriculture and flavoring [13] - Growth opportunities identified in electronic materials, synthetic biology, and solid-state battery materials [13]