每周投资策略-20250519

Group 1: European Market Focus - The Eurozone manufacturing readings show marginal recovery, with Germany's Q1 GDP growth at 0.2%, exceeding market expectations of 0.1% [10][14] - Airbus and Deutsche Telekom are highlighted as key stocks, with Airbus maintaining its delivery expectations despite tariff concerns [22][23] - The STOXX Europe Aerospace and Defense ETF is recommended for investment, focusing on sectors with strong local orientation [26] Group 2: Indonesian Market Focus - Indonesia's Q1 GDP growth slowed to 4.87%, with significant pressure on capital expenditure, but government spending is expected to increase in the second half of the year [34][42] - The iShares MSCI Indonesia ETF is suggested as a potential investment, reflecting the low valuation of the Indonesian stock market [29][43] - The central bank may consider a rate cut to stimulate the economy, with current inflation trends supporting this move [35][37] Group 3: Impact of US-China Tariff War - The US-China trade negotiations are summarized as a three-step process, with significant tariff reductions expected, bringing US tariffs on China down to approximately 44% [51] - The report indicates that the visibility of trade policies is improving, which is favorable for risk assets like US stocks [53] - The report suggests a cautious approach to US bonds, as the market may not fully account for inflation concerns [53]