国证国际港股晨报-20250519

Group 1: Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market is currently in an adjustment phase, but the expected pullback is not anticipated to be deep, leading to a "volatile market" mindset [4][5] - The Hang Seng Index opened lower but closed near its daily high, with a slight decline of 108 points or 0.46% [2] - The market saw a net inflow from the northbound trading, with a net inflow of HKD 1.095 billion on Friday [2] Group 2: Industry Performance - Among the 12 Hang Seng Composite Index industry indices, 3 sectors rose while 9 fell, with healthcare, telecommunications, and materials showing gains of 1.72%, 0.77%, and 0.05% respectively [3] - The pharmaceutical industry is expected to grow significantly, with the global pharmaceutical market projected to increase from USD 1,472.3 billion in 2023 to USD 1,938.7 billion by 2028, reflecting a CAGR of 5.7% [7] - The Chinese pharmaceutical market is also expected to grow from RMB 1,618.3 billion in 2023 to RMB 2,342.0 billion by 2028, with a CAGR of 7.7% [7] Group 3: Company Analysis - 恒瑞医药 (Hengrui Medicine) - Hengrui Medicine is a leading innovative pharmaceutical company in China, with projected revenue of RMB 27.985 billion in 2024, representing a growth of 22.6% [6] - The company's net profit is expected to reach RMB 6.337 billion in 2024, reflecting a growth of 47.3% [6] - The gross margin is anticipated to improve by 1.6 percentage points to 86.2% [6] Group 4: Growth Drivers - The core growth driver for Hengrui Medicine is the revenue from innovative drugs, which is expected to increase from 38.1% of total revenue in 2022 to 46.3% in 2024 [6] - The company has a strong R&D capability, with an investment of RMB 8.2 billion in 2024, accounting for 29.4% of total revenue [8] - Hengrui has a diverse product matrix with over 110 commercialized drugs, including 19 new molecular entity innovative drugs [8] Group 5: Financial Health - Hengrui Medicine has a robust financial position, with an asset-liability ratio of 8% and no interest-bearing debt projected for 2024 [9] - The company has consistently achieved strong cash flow, with operating cash flow exceeding net profit in recent years [9] - The IPO price range for Hengrui is set at HKD 41.45-44.05, which is at a discount of 24-28% compared to its A-share price [11]