股指期货周报：驱动不足、扰动仍存，指数区间震荡-20250519

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The economic recovery slope has slowed, with weak internal momentum, low market confidence, and high deflation pressure. Further policy support is needed, and the role of domestic demand has become more important. The expectation of macro - policy regulation has increased, and attention should be paid to the implementation and impact of policies at the end of the second quarter [2]. - Given the macro - policy expectations and improved risk appetite in the equity market, the long - term treasury bonds have adjusted, showing the stock - bond seesaw effect. Although the economic data in April indicates that policies are still needed to boost the internal momentum of economic recovery, the index is supported. However, due to insufficient trading volume, weak sentiment, and the possibility of tariff negotiation setbacks, the index is likely to oscillate and fall into a range - bound pattern. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and go long at low levels after a stable correction [2]. 3. Summary by Directory Market Performance - Market Review: Last week, the Sino - US trade agreement was reached, and the overseas equity market risk appetite improved. With the support of domestic macro - policy expectations and mixed economic data, the index rose first and then fell, with most sectors rising. From May 9th to May 16th, the CSI 300 rose 1.12%, SSE 50 rose 1.22%, CSI 500 fell 0.10%, and CSI 1000 fell 0.23%. IF rose 0.98%, IH rose 1.09%, IC fell 0.05%, and IM fell 0.19%. The overnight Shibor rate increased by 16 basis points, and DR007 increased by 9.65 basis points [1][4]. - Institutional Positions: As of May 16th, the net short positions of the top 20 institutional members in IF and IC increased from 30,135 and 13,473 to 32,221 and 14,142 respectively, while those in IH and IM decreased from 11,943 and 35,213 to 11,025 and 34,951 respectively [4]. - Liquidity and Capital: As of May 16th, the net capital outflow from the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 201.371 billion yuan, with 128.359 billion yuan from the main board and 56.138 billion yuan from the ChiNext. The margin trading balance increased by about 2.239 billion yuan, and the data on foreign capital was not released [5]. Macroeconomic Fundamentals - In April, the economy declined seasonally. Although imports and exports exceeded expectations, the internal economic momentum was still weak, with weak financing demand in the real economy. Investment mainly relied on policies, consumption was resilient but showed a marginal decline, and market confidence was insufficient. The economic recovery slope slowed, and further policy support was needed. The role of domestic demand became more important, and the expectation of macro - policy regulation increased [2]. Viewpoints and Strategies - In China, due to the implementation of macro - policy expectations and improved risk appetite in the equity market, long - term treasury bonds have adjusted. The economic data in April shows that policies are still needed to boost the internal momentum of economic recovery, which supports the index. However, due to insufficient trading volume, weak sentiment, and the possibility of tariff negotiation setbacks, the index is likely to oscillate and fall into a range - bound pattern. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and go long at low levels after a stable correction [2].