煤焦周度报告20250519：现货降价为主，盘面弱势难改-20250519

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - The trade conflict has eased, but the uncertainty remains high, and the market sentiment is cautious. The hot metal production has started to decline, and the first round of coke price cuts has been implemented, leading to a weakening of the fundamentals. The supply of coking coal remains abundant, and it is expected to continue to reach new lows, with coke following suit. The recommended strategy is to short on rallies [4][9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Coke Weekly Market Tracking 3.1.1 Price - The market sentiment is cautious, and the futures market is weak. The first round of spot price cuts has been implemented. The coke 09 contract fell 1.03% to 1,445.5 as of Friday's close. Various coke prices, including those at production sites, steel mills, and ports, have decreased [4][9][10]. - The freight for coke transportation by truck has remained stable [17]. 3.1.2 Supply - Coke producers are making decent profits, and the supply remains at a high level. As of May 16, the capacity utilization rate of independent coke producers nationwide was 75.7%, up 0.26 percentage points from the previous week, and the daily coke output was 671,500 tons, up 2,300 tons [26][28]. 3.1.3 Demand - The hot metal production has slightly decreased but remains at a high level. There is still short - term support for the raw material demand, but based on the seasonal decline in demand, the decline in hot metal production is certain, albeit at a slow pace. Some steel mills are controlling the arrival of raw materials. As of May 16, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 sample steel mills was 84.15%, down 0.47 percentage points from the previous week [36]. - The speculative sentiment is weak, the export profit has slightly rebounded, and the daily trading volume of building materials in the spot market is low [37][39]. 3.1.4 Inventory - Inventories across all sectors have decreased, and the total inventory has declined. As of May 16, the total coke inventory decreased by 113,300 tons to 9,832,200 tons [42]. 3.1.5 Profit - Coke producers' profitability continues to recover, and the coke futures profit has slightly increased. The profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coke producers was 7 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan from the previous week, and the futures profit of coke 09 increased by 31.5 yuan/ton to 337.25 yuan/ton [61]. 3.1.6 Valuation - The coke 09 contract is slightly at a premium to the spot price, and the 9 - 1 spread is fluctuating. The basis of coke 09 decreased by 20.5 to - 23.4 compared to the previous week, and the 9 - 1 spread increased by 0.5 to - 27 [65]. 3.2 Coking Coal Weekly Market Tracking 3.2.1 Price - The spot market trading has weakened, and the futures market continues to reach new lows. Most coking coal prices, including those of domestic and imported coals, have either decreased or remained stable [68][71]. 3.2.2 Supply - Coal mines are operating normally, but the operating rate of coal washing plants has declined. As of May 15, the operating rate of 110 sample coal washing plants was 62.08%, down 0.34 percentage points from the previous period, and the daily output of clean coal decreased by 3,000 tons [74][79]. - The customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal has recovered to a relatively high level, and the import of coking coal in the first quarter increased slightly year - on - year. From January to March 2025, China imported 27.47 million tons of coking coal, with a cumulative year - on - year growth rate of 2.32% [80][82]. 3.2.3 Inventory - Downstream enterprises are making rigid - demand purchases, while upstream inventories are accumulating, and the total inventory has increased. As of May 16, the total coking coal inventory increased by 65,900 tons to 25,959,400 tons [85]. 3.2.4 Valuation - The discount of coking coal 09 to the spot price has slightly narrowed, and the 9 - 1 spread is fluctuating. The basis of coking coal 09 decreased by 15 to 67.5 compared to the previous week, and the 9 - 1 spread decreased by 3 to - 21.5 [107][108].