2025年4月经济数据点评：关税颠簸下的宏观拼图

Economic Overview - In April 2025, the industrial added value increased by 6.1% year-on-year, while the service production index grew by 6.0% year-on-year, and the total retail sales of consumer goods rose by 5.1% year-on-year[1] - Fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) from January to April increased by 4.0% year-on-year, with total retail sales reaching 161,845 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 4.7%[1] Investment and Consumption Trends - April's economic performance showed characteristics of "stable production, weak investment, and slow consumption" due to tariff fluctuations impacting investment and local finances[2] - The manufacturing investment growth rate fell to 8.2% in April from 9.2% in March, primarily due to frequent adjustments in tariff policies[6] - The infrastructure investment growth rate decreased to 9.6% year-on-year in April from 12.6% in March, indicating a slowdown in construction activities[6] Consumer Behavior - Retail sales growth was below expectations, significantly affected by price pressures, with consumer goods contributing negatively to the CPI, shifting from a 0.1% increase in March to a 0.2% decrease in April[4] - Automobile retail sales saw a substantial drop to 0.7% year-on-year in April, marking the largest marginal drag on total retail sales[4] Policy Implications - The government is expected to enhance policy measures to support consumption, particularly in the automotive sector, with recent policies aimed at boosting sales showing positive effects in May[2] - The introduction of new policy-oriented financial tools is anticipated to support technological innovation and manufacturing upgrades, potentially improving investment growth in the manufacturing sector[6]