锌周报：宏观担忧再起，锌价震荡偏弱-20250519

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - Last week, the main contract price of Shanghai zinc futures rose first and then fell. The significant reduction of Sino - US tariffs, cooling US inflation, and lower - than - expected retail growth increased the expectation of a Fed rate cut, causing the US dollar to decline, which was favorable for the rebound of the non - ferrous sector. However, Moody's downgraded the US credit rating, reigniting macro - concerns. China's April financial data was mixed, with credit failing to continue improving and its structure weakening, indicating insufficient endogenous economic momentum [3][10]. - Since mid - April, zinc ingot imports have started, with many importers reducing orders. Recently, imported and bonded area supplies have flowed in for replenishment, and the inflow is expected to be more obvious in the second half of the month. In May, refineries had concentrated maintenance in the first half of the month, but many resumed production in the second half. After offsetting the increase and decrease, the monthly supply of refined zinc was basically flat compared with the previous month, and the overall supply - side pressure remained unrelieved [4][10]. - In terms of demand, the performance of special towers remained good, while photovoltaic orders weakened. Enterprises' export orders were expected to improve but needed time. The operating rate of galvanized enterprises increased slightly; the export orders of small hardware improved without obvious rush - to - export behavior, and combined with the resumption of some enterprises, the operating rate of die - casting zinc alloy increased; rubber and electronic - grade orders declined, while feed - grade orders improved. Export enterprises remained cautious, and the operating rate of zinc oxide increased slightly month - on - month [4][10]. - Overall, the optimistic sentiment about tariffs has been digested, and Moody's downgraded the US credit rating, causing the market sentiment to return to caution. With the launch of new domestic smelting projects, the supply continued to increase. Meanwhile, with the supplement of imported zinc and the end of the consumption peak season, the expectation of weak fundamentals due to increasing supply and weak demand remained unchanged. In the short term, the cooling of market risk appetite and insufficient fundamental support are expected to lead to a weak and volatile trend in zinc prices [4][10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Transaction Data | Contract | May 9th | May 16th | Change | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Zinc | 22190 | 22500 | 310 | Yuan/ton | | LME Zinc | 2655.5 | 2726 | 70.5 | US dollars/ton | | Shanghai - London Ratio | 8.36 | 8.25 | - 0.10 | | | SHFE Inventory | 47102 | 46351 | - 751 | Tons | | LME Inventory | 170325 | 165175 | - 5150 | Tons | | Social Inventory | 8.33 | 8.63 | 0.3 | Ten thousand tons | | Spot Premium | 500 | 250 | - 250 | Yuan/ton | [5] 3.2 Market Review - Last week, the main contract ZN2506 of Shanghai zinc futures rose first and then fell. The larger - than - expected reduction of Sino - US tariffs alleviated concerns about the US economic recession and China's export pressure, and the market sentiment recovered, leading to a general rise in non - ferrous metals. However, the zinc price was under pressure and adjusted after hitting the 40 - day moving average, finally closing at 22500 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 1.4%. It was weak and volatile on Friday night. LME zinc continued to rebound in the first half of the week and fluctuated and consolidated in the second half, finally closing at 2686 US dollars/ton, with a weekly increase of 1.15% [6]. - In the spot market, as of May 16th, the mainstream transaction price of Shanghai 0 zinc was concentrated between 22765 - 22910 yuan/ton, with a premium of 250 - 270 yuan/ton over 2506. SMC had a premium of 260 yuan/ton over 2506, and Kazakh zinc had a premium of 180 yuan/ton over 2506. In the Ningbo market, the mainstream brand 0 zinc was traded at around 22775 - 22900 yuan/ton, with a premium of 265 yuan/ton over the 2506 contract and a premium of 40 yuan/ton over the Shanghai spot. In Guangdong, the mainstream 0 zinc was traded at 22640 - 22700 yuan/ton, with a premium of 305 yuan/ton over the 2507 contract and a discount of 40 yuan/ton to the Shanghai spot, and the Shanghai - Guangdong price difference widened. In the Tianjin market, the mainstream 0 zinc ingots were traded at 22720 - 22940 yuan/ton, and the common 0 zinc was quoted at a premium of 200 - 300 yuan/ton over the 2506 contract, with Tianjin at par with Shanghai. Overall, as the zinc price rebounded, the downstream purchasing sentiment weakened. Meanwhile, with the inflow of imported zinc ingots and improved supply, holders continued to lower the premium quotes to actively sell, but the actual spot transactions were relatively light [7]. - In terms of inventory, as of May 16th, the LME zinc ingot inventory was 165175 tons, a weekly decrease of 5150 tons. The SHFE inventory was 46351 tons, a decrease of 751 tons from the previous week. As of May 15th, the social inventory was 8.63 million tons, an increase of 0.08 million tons from Monday and an increase of 0.3 million tons from the previous week. Among them, the inventory in Guangdong decreased due to less arrival and downstream pick - up after low - price purchases in the early stage; the inventory in Tianjin increased as downstream buyers were cautious due to high prices; the inventory in Shanghai changed little; and the inventory in Zhejiang increased significantly due to the arrival of imported zinc ingots [8]. - In the macro aspect, US inflation cooled down. The April CPI was 2.3% year - on - year, the lowest level since February 2021. The core CPI increased by 2.8% year - on - year, the lowest rate since the inflation outbreak in the spring of 2021. The US April PPI increased by 2.4% year - on - year, lower than expected, and decreased by 0.5% month - on - month, with the largest decline in five years. The US April retail sales increased by 0.1% month - on - month, slightly exceeding expectations but significantly weaker than the previous value, indicating weak consumer spending. Fed Chairman Powell said that the Fed was considering adjusting the core content of the monetary policy guidance framework to cope with major changes in inflation and interest rate prospects after the 2020 pandemic. Fed Vice - Chairman Jefferson said that tariffs and related uncertainties might lead to slower economic growth and rising inflation this year, but the monetary policy was ready to respond as needed. In terms of tariffs, the joint statement of the Sino - US economic and trade high - level talks was released. Both sides agreed to significantly reduce bilateral tariff levels. The US cancelled a total of 91% of the additional tariffs, and China correspondingly cancelled 91% of the counter - tariffs; the US suspended the implementation of 24% of the "reciprocal tariffs", and China also correspondingly suspended the implementation of 24% of the counter - tariffs. China's new RMB loans in April were 280 billion yuan, the previous value was 3.64 trillion yuan, the expected value was 764.4 billion yuan, and the value of the same period last year was 730 billion yuan; the new social financing was 1.16 trillion yuan, the previous value was 5.89 trillion yuan, the expected value was 1.26 trillion yuan, and the value of the same period last year was - 65.8 billion yuan; the stock social financing growth rate was 8.7%, the previous value was 8.4%; M2 increased by 8% year - on - year, the expected value was 7.5%, and the previous value was 7%; M1 increased by 1.5% year - on - year, the expected value was 3%, and the previous value was 1.6% [8][9]. 3.3 Industry News - As of the week of May 16th, the weekly processing fees for domestic and foreign zinc concentrates were reported at 3500 yuan/metal ton and 45 US dollars/dry ton respectively, remaining flat month - on - month for domestic and increasing by 5 US dollars/dry ton for foreign [11]. - Kyzyl - Tashtyg Mine, operated by Longxin Co., Ltd., a subsidiary of Zijin Mining Group in the Tuva Republic of Russia, is facing financial difficulties due to the escalation of international sanctions and limited Sino - Russian financial cooperation and plans to suspend operations. Zijin Mining owns 70% of the mine, which produced approximately 71300 tons of zinc concentrate and approximately 4750 tons of lead concentrate in 2024 [11][12]. - New Century's zinc concentrate production in Q1 2025 was 30000 tons. It performed excellently in Q1 2025, reducing the impact of the rainy season through effective resilience measures, with a 50% increase compared to the weather - affected production in 2024. Zijin Mining's mineral zinc production in Q1 2025 was 88215 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 10% and a month - on - month decrease of 9% [12]. 3.4 Related Charts - The report provides 14 charts, including the price trend charts of Shanghai zinc and LME zinc, the internal and external price ratio, spot premium and discount, LME premium and discount, inventory data of SHFE, LME, social and bonded areas, domestic and foreign zinc ore processing fees, zinc ore import profit and loss, domestic refined zinc production, smelter profit, refined zinc net import, and the operating rate of downstream primary enterprises [14][15][17].