镍周报：需求预期改善，镍价震荡偏强-20250519

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The outcome of the China-US economic and trade agreement exceeded market expectations, with both sides significantly lowering tariff thresholds, leading to a revision of macro expectations. The US inflation pressure further eased, and the market expects the Fed to postpone the interest rate cut to September [3]. - Although the Indonesian Nickel Association has repeatedly lowered the benchmark price of nickel ore, the current shortage situation continues, and the ore price is still rising. The cost pressure of ferronickel is prominent, and some ferronickel plants in Indonesia have stopped quoting for bulk goods. The nickel sulfate market remains sluggish, with no willingness for downstream inventory replenishment, continuing active destocking. Cathode plants may reduce the production plan for May, and there are no bright spots in the new energy sector. Stainless steel inventory has significantly decreased, and the production of electrolytic nickel is at a high level, with a stable fundamentals [3]. - In the later stage, there is no expectation of macro disturbances, and the fundamentals may be marginally revised, with nickel prices fluctuating strongly. There are no important economic data to be released this week, and the tariff risk is gradually cooling down, with no expectation of macro disturbances. With the entry into force of the China-US tariff agreement, the downstream household appliance industry may have plans to rush exports, which may drive a marginal recovery in stainless steel consumption. The significant contraction of steel mills' production in May may drive an accelerated reduction in stainless steel inventory. The new energy sector continues to grow weakly, with no obvious inflection point expected. Overall, the marginal revision of the fundamentals may boost nickel prices [3][10] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Last Week's Market Important Data - SHFE nickel closed at 124,060 yuan/ton on May 16, 2025, down 2,070 yuan/ton from May 12; LME nickel closed at $15,648/ton, up $13/ton; LME inventory was 195,222 tons, down 2,448 tons; SHFE inventory was 23,501 tons, up 279 tons; the premium of Jinchuan nickel was 2,150 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan/ton; the premium of Russian nickel was 250 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton; the average price of high-nickel pig iron was 960 yuan/nickel point, unchanged; stainless steel inventory was 952,000 tons, up 800 tons [4] 2. Market Review Nickel Ore - The FOB price of 1.5% laterite nickel ore in the Philippines remained at $48.5/wet ton, while the domestic FOB price of 1.5% laterite nickel ore in Indonesia rose from $48.6/wet ton to $49.3/wet ton. The shortage of nickel ore in Indonesia continued, with domestic traders' quotes remaining firm and the FOB price further rising. The price of Philippine ore stopped rising, and the current shipping volume remained at a low level [5] Ferronickel - The price of high-nickel pig iron (10%-12%) dropped from 942.5 yuan/nickel point to 941.5 yuan/nickel point. The expected production of nickel pig iron in China in May was about 26,260 metal tons, a month-on-month increase of 3.15%; the total import of domestic ferronickel in March was about 1.0133 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 60%, and the import scale exceeded one million tons for the first time; the expected production of ferronickel in Indonesia in April was 143,300 nickel tons, a year-on-year and month-on-month increase of 17.19%/1.19%, and the ferronickel production was still in the climbing stage. The expected production of 300-series stainless steel in China in May was about 1.78 million tons, an increase of 4 tons compared with the same period last year; as of April 30, the domestic stainless steel inventory was 573,700 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 5,900 tons. Overall, the high price of nickel ore and the continuous weakening of ferronickel prices have highlighted the cost pressure on ferronickel plants. Some Indonesian ferronickel plants have stopped quoting for bulk goods and only maintain long-term agreements. With the implementation of the China-US economic and trade agreement, some domestic small household appliance enterprises have rushed to export, which may drive a correction in stainless steel demand. The significant contraction of domestic stainless steel production in May may lead to a decline in inventory from a high level [6] Nickel Sulfate - The price of battery-grade nickel sulfate rose from 28,115 yuan/ton to 27,995 yuan/ton; the price of electroplating-grade nickel sulfate remained at 30,750 yuan/ton. The expected production of nickel sulfate in terms of metal content in May was about 26,000 tons, a year-on-year and month-on-month decrease of 20.51%/0.39%. The production of ternary materials in May increased again month-on-month, with a total of about 63,745 tons, a year-on-year and month-on-month increase of 1.36%/30.95%. Overall, there is no expected increase in the demand for nickel sulfate, the terminal new energy consumption is weakly stable, and some cathode material plants plan to reduce production, but they are still in the channel of month-on-month expansion. In the short term, it may continue on a stable growth path, but there are no high expectations [7] Macro and Fundamental Aspects - Macroscopically, the China-US economic and trade agreement has been implemented, and both sides have significantly lowered tariff barriers. However, Trump's policy style is changeable, and the tax reduction window is only open for 90 days, so there are still many uncertain factors in the future of trade relations. The US inflation data has weakened, reaching a new low, and the labor market remains resilient. The market expects the Fed to postpone the interest rate cut to September. However, Powell said that the risk of "supply shock" still needs to be vigilant, and the tariff pressure needs further observation. In terms of data, the US core CPI in April was 2.8% year-on-year, in line with expectations and the previous value; the CPI was 2.3% year-on-year, lower than the expected 2.4% and the previous value of 2.4%; the number of initial jobless claims in the US was 229,000, in line with expectations and unchanged from the previous period [7][8] - On the supply side, the domestic production capacity in May was stable, and the production schedule of smelters declined. According to the SMM caliber, the expected production of electrolytic nickel in May was 35,350 tons, a decrease from April; the sample production capacity was 54,099 tons, unchanged from the previous period; the expected operating rate in May was 65.34%, a decrease of about 1.76 percentage points from the previous month. In March, the domestic export scale of electrolytic nickel was about 145,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 93.53%. As of May 16, the export profit of nickel in China under the SMM caliber was $221.76/ton. Overall, although the production in May declined, it still remained at a high level. The export window was still open, and there was still room to absorb the surplus resources. With the promotion of terminal rush exports, the demand for stainless steel may be pushed up again, thereby supporting the supply of electrolytic nickel [8] - In terms of consumption, from May 1 to 11, the retail sales of the new energy passenger vehicle market nationwide were 294,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 32% compared with the same period in May last year and a month-on-month increase of 29%. The retail penetration rate of the new energy market was 51.3%, and the cumulative retail sales since the beginning of this year were 3.618 million units, a year-on-year increase of 35%. At the beginning of May, the consumption growth rate of new energy vehicles still showed resilience, and the new car replacement policies across the country continued to increase. Haikou issued provincial subsidy incentives, with a maximum single-vehicle subsidy of 5,000 yuan. On the other end of the fast-charging track, the battery-swapping track is also progressing simultaneously. The Beijing Market Supervision and Administration Bureau mentioned in a recently released document that the solicitation of opinions on the "Operating Management Specification for Electric Vehicle Battery-Swapping Stations" has been completed. It requires that the battery-swapping time for electric passenger vehicles should be less than 4 minutes, and the battery-swapping time for electric commercial vehicles should be less than 5 minutes. It also establishes rules and regulations for the management of potential safety hazards and encourages an internal reporting and reward mechanism for hazards [9] - In terms of inventory, the current total social inventory of pure nickel in six places is 44,151 tons, an increase of 63 tons from the previous period; the SHFE inventory is 23,501 tons, a month-on-month increase of 279 tons; the LME nickel inventory is 195,222 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 2,448 tons; the total inventory of the world's two major exchanges is 218,723 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 2,169 tons [9] 3. Industry News - On May 11, 2025, the 90,000-ton nickel-cobalt project in Sulawesi, Indonesia, held a start-up ceremony and the successful installation of the first autoclave. The construction and installation projects of the main body and supporting ancillary facilities of the project, including construction engineering, installation engineering, and supporting ancillary facilities, single-unit commissioning, and cooperation with the owner for no-load and load commissioning, started on January 1, 2025, and are expected to be completed on April 30, 2026. Currently, there are 30 sub-items in the third section of the mining area and 23 sub-items in the mining area section [11] - Overseas resource exploration is accelerating, and many companies are successively deploying. Tembo Nickel Limited plans to start the construction of the Kabanga nickel project in the Kagera region this October, marking an important step in the development of the mining industry in Tanzania [11] - Legacy Minerals has applied for an exploration license for the Nico Young nickel-cobalt project in New South Wales. The project has a resource volume of about 1 million tons of nickel and 100,000 tons of cobalt. The project was previously held by Jervois Global, and now it has no acquisition cost, no debt, or royalty, and benefits from more than A$25 million in pre-development work [11] 4. Related Charts - The report provides 10 charts, including the trends of domestic and international nickel prices, spot premium and discount trends, LME 0-3 nickel premium and discount, domestic and international nickel ratios, nickel futures inventory, nickel ore port inventory, high-nickel iron price, 300-series stainless steel price, and stainless steel inventory [13][15]