黑色金属数据日报-20250519

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The core logic of the black sector this year is the further relaxation of furnace material supply, upstream concessions in the industrial chain, cost loosening leading to a downward shift in the valuation center, and the limited short - term effect of demand - side and supply - side policies on price boosts. It's necessary to maintain the idea of rolling sell - hedging [4]. - For coking coal and coke, the supply of carbon elements is abundant, the spot trend is weak, and the idea of shorting on rallies remains. Consider participating in the JM9 - 1 calendar spread [5]. - For ferroalloys, the rebound of ferrosilicon due to tight spot supply may continue, while manganese silicon has no new production - cut expectations for now [6]. - For iron ore, it is in a volatile state in May. After May, if the steel fundamentals weaken, it is more likely that steel will be weaker than ore [7]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - Weekend steel spot prices mainly declined. After the temporary improvement in market sentiment, the black sector returned to a decline, with carbon elements leading the decline. The industry's core logic is the relaxation of furnace material supply and upstream concessions. As domestic demand for building materials enters the off - season and the risk of weakening export - oriented plate demand exists, it is necessary to maintain a rolling sell - hedging strategy. For trading, it is recommended to stay on the sidelines for single - side trading, choose hot - rolled coils with better liquidity for spot - futures operations, and manage positions and conduct appropriate inventory rotation [4][8]. Coking Coal and Coke - In the spot market, the first round of coke price cuts was quickly implemented, and coking coal auction prices continued to decline with a high non - bid rate. There are still expectations of further price cuts. In the futures market, the black chain index rebounded due to tariff reduction but was still under the pressure of the 20 - day moving average. Macroscopically, the trade war situation may fluctuate, and the financial data in April was weak. Industrially, the market has expectations for "rush - to - export" during the tariff suspension period, but steel prices are still rising weakly. For coking coal and coke, due to abundant supply and downstream de - stocking, the strategy of shorting on rallies is maintained for single - side trading, and consider participating in the JM9 - 1 calendar spread [5]. Ferroalloys - There were many production - cut news for large - scale ferrosilicon and manganese silicon manufacturers this week, with a significant decline in production. Ferrosilicon spot is tight, and its rebound may continue. Manganese silicon has no new large - scale production - cut expectations after profit repair. The Hebei Steel Group's tender price was at a low level, but the quantity increased. The cost of manganese ore rebounded, and the overall cost of manganese silicon was stable. The cost of ferrosilicon may decline slightly. It is recommended to hold previous long positions in ferrosilicon and positive calendar spreads of the two ferroalloys [6]. Iron Ore - The current comprehensive tariff is still at a high level. In May, iron ore is in a volatile state. After May, if the steel fundamentals weaken, steel may be weaker than ore. It is recommended to consider shorting on rallies [7]. Market Data - Futures Market: On May 16, the far - month and near - month contract closing prices of various black metal varieties mostly declined, with different degrees of decline in each variety. The cross - month spreads, spreads, ratios, and profits of the main contracts also showed corresponding changes [2]. - Spot Market: On May 16, the spot prices of various black metal varieties also mostly declined, and the basis of each variety showed different degrees of change [2].