贵金属数据日报-20250519

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - The long - term upward logic of gold prices remains unchanged, but in the short term, due to the game between multiple and short factors such as tariffs, tax policies, and uncertainties in the US economy, gold prices are likely to show a wide - range oscillatory trend. It is recommended that investors wait and see in the short term and go long at low levels after the adjustment is in place. Silver trends generally follow gold, with a short - term oscillatory trend and limited long - term upside space due to economic downward risks and potential slowdown in physical demand [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalog Market Quotes - On May 16, the main contract of Shanghai gold futures closed up 0.88% to 751.8 yuan/gram, and the main contract of Shanghai silver futures closed up 0.61% to 8180 yuan/kilogram [3]. Price and Spread Data - Price: London gold spot, London silver spot, AU (T + D), COMEX silver, AG (T + D), COMEX gold, AU2508, and AG2508 all showed varying degrees of increase on May 16 compared to May 15, with increases ranging from 1.2% to 2.1% [3]. - Spread: The spreads of gold and silver in the domestic and foreign markets, as well as the spreads between TD and SHFE active prices, showed different degrees of change, with the change range of spreads from - 27.8% to 13.2% [3]. Position Data - COMEX Non - commercial Positions: On May 16, compared with May 15, the non - commercial long and short positions of COMEX gold and silver changed, with the change range from - 4.24% to 2.71% [3]. - ETF Positions: The gold ETF - SPDR and silver ETF - SLV positions also showed certain changes [3]. Inventory Data - SHFE gold inventory remained unchanged, SHFE silver inventory increased by 0.08%, COMEX gold inventory decreased by 3.04%, and COMEX silver inventory remained unchanged on May 16 compared to May 15 [3]. Interest Rate, Exchange Rate, and Stock Market Data - On May 16, compared with May 15, the 10 - year and 2 - year US Treasury yields, the US dollar index, NYMEX crude oil, and the S&P 500 all showed different degrees of change, with the change range from - 3.31% to 0.70% [3]. News Events - Trump stated on May 16 that he would set the tariff rates for US trading partners in the next two or three weeks [3]. - Russia - Ukraine direct negotiations restarted on May 16, but the results were not ideal, and the two sides reached an agreement on the exchange of 1000 prisoners of war and agreed to exchange lists of cease - fire conditions [3]. - Fed's Bostic expects one interest rate cut this year, and the US economy will not experience a recession [3]. - US consumer confidence declined, inflation expectations soared again, and the import price index rebounded [3]. - The US House Budget Committee rejected a Trump administration bill covering tax reform and healthcare adjustment on May 16 [3]. - Moody's downgraded the US rating to Aa1, with a stable outlook, and expected the ratio of federal budget deficit to GDP to reach 9% by 2035 and the ratio of federal debt to GDP to reach 134% by 2005 [3].