钢材周报：关注终端数据，期价震荡为主-20250519

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The macro - situation shows that the joint statement of the China - US economic and trade high - level talks was released. The US cancelled 91% of the additional tariffs, and China correspondingly cancelled 91% of the counter - tariffs. The US suspended the implementation of 24% of the "reciprocal tariffs", and China also suspended the implementation of 24% of the counter - tariffs. China also suspended or cancelled non - tariff counter - measures against the US, and both sides will establish a mechanism to continue consultations on economic and trade relations [1][4][6] - In terms of fundamentals, last week, the output of rebar was 2.27 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 30,000 tons, the apparent demand was 2.6 million tons, an increase of 460,000 tons, the rebar factory inventory was 1.85 million tons, a decrease of 30,000 tons, the social inventory was 4.35 million tons, a decrease of 300,000 tons, and the total inventory was 6.2 million tons, a decrease of 340,000 tons. The output of hot - rolled coils was 3.12 million tons, a decrease of 80,000 tons, the factory inventory was 780,000 tons, a decrease of 70,000 tons, the social inventory was 2.69 million tons, a decrease of 110,000 tons, the total inventory was 3.48 million tons, a decrease of 180,000 tons, and the apparent demand was 3.3 million tons, an increase of 200,000 tons [1][5] - Overall, the industrial data last week was acceptable. Some blast furnaces started to limit production, the apparent demand recovered seasonally, and the inventory continued to decline. Due to the weak real - estate investment, the demand for rebar had few bright spots. Recently, the improvement in China - US tariff relations eased the export pressure on hot - rolled coils. The improvement in steel supply and demand was limited, and coupled with the weakening of raw materials, steel prices are expected to show a volatile trend. Attention should be paid to the terminal real - estate investment data on Monday [1][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Transaction Data | Contract | Closing Price | Change | Change Rate (%) | Total Trading Volume (Lots) | Total Open Interest (Lots) | Price Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Rebar | 3082 | 60 | 1.99 | 9932652 | 2795790 | Yuan/ton | | SHFE Hot - rolled Coil | 3226 | 69 | 2.19 | 3176582 | 1362524 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Iron Ore | 728.0 | 32.0 | 4.60 | 2364452 | 757976 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Coking Coal | 852.5 | - 25.0 | - 2.85 | 2616452 | 464062 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Coke | 1445.5 | - 1.0 | - 0.07 | 132073 | 51651 | Yuan/ton | [2] 3.2 Market Review - Last week, steel futures fluctuated and rebounded. Driven by the macro - situation, the futures and spot markets rose in resonance. In the spot market, the price of Tangshan steel billets was 2950 (+40) Yuan/ton, the Shanghai rebar was quoted at 3210 (+40) Yuan/ton, and the Shanghai hot - rolled coil was 3290 (+70) Yuan/ton [4] 3.3 Industry News - The joint statement of the China - US economic and trade high - level talks was released, with the tariff adjustments as mentioned above [6][7] - The General Office of the Communist Party of China Central Committee and the General Office of the State Council issued the "Opinions on Continuously Promoting Urban Renewal Actions", which means that China has pressed the "accelerator button" for urban renewal [10] - Since the implementation of the automobile trade - in policy in 2024, the cumulative subsidy application volume has exceeded 10 million. As of May 11, 2025, the subsidy application volume for automobile trade - in reached 3.225 million, of which new - energy vehicles accounted for more than 53% [10] - From January to April, the increment of social financing scale was 16.34 trillion Yuan, 3.61 trillion Yuan more than the same period last year; the new RMB loans were 10.06 trillion Yuan. At the end of April, the money supply M2 increased by 8% year - on - year, 1 percentage point higher than last month [10] 3.4 Relevant Charts - The report provides 20 charts, including the trends of rebar and hot - rolled coil futures and their spreads, basis, spot regional price differences, steel mill profits, blast furnace operating rates, steel production, inventory, and apparent consumption [9][11][13]