宏观利好交易充分，铝价再上空间或有限

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - The Sino-US talks achieved substantial progress, and the market risk appetite significantly rebounded. However, the weak US economic data released over the weekend increased concerns about demand. The supply of electrolytic aluminum is basically stable, and the downstream consumption is slightly better than expected, with inventory still being depleted. But as the seasonal off - peak season approaches, the sustainability of inventory depletion is questionable. After the continuous rebound of aluminum prices, more positive stimuli are needed for further increase. It is expected that the upward space of aluminum prices is limited [2][7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Transaction Data - From May 9th to May 16th, 2025, the price of LME Aluminum 3 - month increased from 2418 to 2484.5 yuan/ton, SHFE Aluminum Continuous Three increased from 19445 to 20020 dollars/ton, and the spot premium of LME changed from - 9.4 to 5.79 dollars/ton. LME aluminum inventory decreased by 8100 tons, and SHFE aluminum warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 2193 tons. The social inventory of aluminum ingots decreased by 3.9 tons. The theoretical average cost of electrolytic aluminum increased by 67.2 yuan/ton, and the weekly average profit increased by 399.8 yuan/ton [3] 3.2 Market Review - The weekly average price of Yangtze River spot was 19948 yuan/ton, an increase of 202 yuan/ton compared with last week; the weekly average price of Nanchu spot was 19904 yuan/ton, an increase of 168 yuan/ton compared with last week [4] 3.3 Market Outlook - The Sino - US talks had positive results, but the weak US economic data raised demand concerns. The supply of electrolytic aluminum is stable, and the downstream consumption has some resilience. The inventory is being depleted, but the sustainability is in doubt. After the full trading of macro - positive factors, the upward space of aluminum prices is limited [7] 3.4 Industry News - UAE's largest aluminum recycling plant construction is 50% completed, 42 days ahead of schedule, and is expected to produce the first batch of smelted metal in the first half of 2026. India proposed to impose retaliatory tariffs on the US due to US steel and aluminum tariffs. In April 2025, China's exports of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products were 51.8 tons, and the cumulative exports from January to April decreased by 5.7% compared with the same period last year [8] 3.5 Related Charts - The report provides charts on the price trends of LME Aluminum 3 - SHFE Aluminum Continuous Three, the ratio of Shanghai - London aluminum, LME aluminum premium, Shanghai aluminum inter - period spread, Shanghai - Guangdong price difference, domestic and imported alumina prices, electrolytic aluminum cost - profit, and the seasonal changes of electrolytic aluminum and aluminum rod inventories [9][11][14]