聚酯数据日报-20250519

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - PTA market: After the Sino-US economic and trade high-level talks, the atmosphere of bulk chemicals weakened, and the PTA market gave back some of the gains. Although downstream polyester manufacturers released remarks about production cuts, it is likely to adjust the output of polyester sub - products, and the impact on the PTA market is currently limited. The basis of PTA has strengthened significantly, and the market contango has emerged. Polyester factories' inventory has improved, and terminal export demand is expected to strengthen [2]. - MEG market: The port inventory of ethylene glycol in East China remains at over 700,000 tons. The inventory change is small. The load of coal - based ethylene glycol plants has recovered, putting pressure on the market, but coal prices have started to rise. The profit of coal - based plants has been compressed, and the mainstream plants are about to be overhauled, which will lead to the de - stocking stage [2]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market Data - INE Crude Oil and PTA - SC: On May 15th, INE crude oil was 463.2 yuan/barrel, and PTA - SC was 1431.9 yuan/ton; on May 16th, INE crude oil was 456.2 yuan/barrel, and PTA - SC was 1458.7 yuan/ton, with a change of - 7.00 and 26.87 respectively [2]. - PX: CFR China PX decreased from 854 to 838, and the PX - naphtha spread increased from 264 to 273 [2]. - PTA: The PTA main futures price decreased from 4798 yuan/ton to 4774 yuan/ton, the spot price decreased from 5030 to 4990, the spot processing fee decreased from 390.3 yuan/ton to 438.8 yuan/ton, the disk processing fee increased from 158.3 yuan/ton to 222.8 yuan/ton, and the main basis decreased from 205 to 192. The number of PTA warehouse receipts increased from 69236 to 70046 [2]. - MEG: The MEG main futures price decreased from 4461 yuan/ton to 4460 yuan/ton, MEG - naphtha increased from (86.32) to (85.51), the MEG domestic price decreased from 4581 to 4570, and the main basis decreased from 95 to 85 [2]. - Industry Chain开工率: PX and PTA operating rates remained unchanged at 73.32% and 74.41% respectively, MEG operating rate decreased from 53.02% to 52.52%, and polyester load decreased from 91.34% to 91.14% [2]. - Polyester Products: POY150D/48F remained at 7050, POY cash flow increased from (35) to 3; FDY150D/96F remained at 7310, FDY cash flow increased from (275) to (237); DTY150D/48F increased from 8230 to 8245, DTY cash flow increased from (55) to (2); 1.4D direct - spun polyester staple decreased from 6805 to 6750, polyester staple cash flow decreased from 70 to 53; semi - bright chip decreased from 6045 to 6015, chip cash flow increased from (140) to (132). The sales of long - filament decreased from 35% to 28%, the sales of polyester staple decreased from 44% to 36%, and the sales of chips decreased from 40% to 36% [2]. Trade Negotiation Impact - Sino - US economic and trade high - level talks were held in Geneva, Switzerland from May 10th to 11th. Both sides agreed to establish a Sino - US economic and trade consultation mechanism, and the reciprocal tariffs were significantly reduced. 24% of the tariffs were suspended within the initial 90 days, and the right to impose the remaining 10% tariffs on these goods was reserved. The additional tariffs on these goods imposed by Executive Order No. 14259 on April 8, 2025, and Executive Order No. 14266 on April 9, 2025, were cancelled [2]. Device Maintenance - Due to the recent rapid rise in raw material prices, three major polyester filament manufacturers have decided to immediately implement production cuts for loss - making varieties and plan the next - step production cut plan, which will be implemented in the short term [2]