库存高位，成本驱动乏力，纸价偏稳

Group 1: Report's Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The price of offset printing paper is expected to remain stable next week [7] Group 3: Summary by Directory Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategy - The 70g offset paper's enterprise含税均价 is 5128.6 yuan/ton, with no change compared to the previous period. The supply side shows differentiation, with some停产 enterprises not resuming normal production, and the industry supply has an increasing trend as new installations stabilize. The demand side is weak, with limited release of publishing tender orders and sporadic low prices suppressing market expectations. Some broadleaf pulp traders are holding back on sales, leading to a temporary tightening of available supply and boosting price rebounds [5] - The offset printing paper is expected to run stably overall next week [7] Core Logic Analysis - For offset paper, the industry's profit level is still low, there is a situation of factory production conversion, and the market supply is stabilizing. The release of autumn publishing orders is slow, social orders are still sluggish, overall terminal consumption is falling short of expectations, the operating level of downstream printing factories is not high, the consumption of users' base paper inventory is slow, and there is no obvious intention to stock up in large quantities. The domestic port inventory is still at a high level, and the spot market of imported pulp has abundant supply, so the market as a whole is stabilizing [6] Weekly Data Tracking Supply - The capacity utilization rate of offset paper this period is 56.1%, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points compared to the previous period; the output is 20.0 tons, a decrease of 0.5% compared to the previous period. The main reasons are that the停产 enterprises have not resumed offset paper production, the production stability of new installations has improved, and the industry's profit level is still low, leading to an increase in the number of factories converting production or shutting down. The pulp raw material price has dropped from a high level, and the paper price has also dropped accordingly, with the overall gross profit margin weakening [13] - The capacity utilization rate of coated paper this period is 56.9%, an increase of 2.3 percentage points compared to the previous period; the output is 7.7 tons, an increase of 4.1% compared to the previous period. The main reasons are that the停产 factories have not fully resumed production, the industry's profit level is relatively stable, other factories are mostly operating normally as planned, and there are no temporarily shut-down production lines. The pulp price has rebounded slightly, and the gross profit margin of coated paper has declined [19] Inventory - The inventory of offset paper production enterprises this period is 115.4 tons, an increase of 1.3% compared to the previous period. During the week, there was little change in factory production, terminal consumption was weak, the operating level of downstream printing factories was low, users had no intention to replenish inventory in large quantities, and most traders followed a policy of buying and selling as they went. The overall on-site inventory continued to increase slightly and is at a high level in recent years [16] - The inventory of coated paper production enterprises this period is 33.6 tons, an increase of 1.2% compared to the previous period. The industry's supply has increased slightly this week, but terminal consumption is not strong, users mainly make small, on-demand purchases, and most traders follow a policy of buying and selling as they go. The industry's production and sales are in a weak balance, and the average inventory of paper enterprises has a slight increasing trend compared to last week. Currently, the on-site inventory of coated paper continues to rebound [22] Price - The domestic offset paper market is in a stalemate between supply and demand this period, with dull trading. The enterprise含税均价 of 70g offset paper is 5128.6 yuan/ton, with no change compared to the previous period. The domestic coated paper market is in a game between supply and demand, with a dull trading atmosphere. The enterprise含税均价 of 157g coated paper is 5875.0 yuan/ton, with no change compared to the previous period [31] - The spot含税均价 of softwood pulp is 6250 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.9% compared to the previous period; the spot含税均价 of broadleaf pulp is 4157 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.7% compared to the previous period; the spot含税均价 of unbleached pulp is 5321 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.5% compared to the previous period; the spot含税均价 of chemimechanical pulp is 3900 yuan/ton, with no change compared to the previous period [36]