有色及新能源周报：中美贸易谈判超预期，有色板块集体走强-20250519

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The non - ferrous metals sector strengthened collectively due to the better - than - expected China - US trade negotiations. However, different metals have different market outlooks, with copper expected to be volatile and short - term bearish, zinc being bearish, and nickel being in a wide - range oscillation [1][9][89][207]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Non - ferrous Metal Price Monitoring - The report monitored the closing prices of various non - ferrous metals, including the dollar index, exchange rate CNH, and prices of industrial silicon, lithium carbonate, copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, tin, alumina, and stainless steel, along with their daily, weekly, and annual price changes [6]. 3.2 Copper (CU) - Influencing Factors: Macro factors are bearish due to the digestion of trade negotiation benefits, weak credit data, expected Fed rate cuts, and low consumer confidence. The raw material end is bullish as copper concentrate processing fees are low and port inventories are decreasing. The smelting end is neutral with smelter losses. The demand end is neutral with fluctuating downstream demand. The position and inventory are also neutral [9]. - Investment View: Copper prices are expected to be volatile and short - term bearish [9]. - Trading Strategy: Short - term bearish for single - side trading, and no arbitrage strategy [9]. 3.3 Zinc (ZN) - Influencing Factors: Macro factors are neutral with tariff adjustments and economic data. The raw material end is bearish with rising processing fees and increasing port inventories. The smelting end is bearish with expected supply increases. The demand end is bearish as downstream demand weakens in the off - season. The inventory is neutral with potential inventory accumulation [89]. - Investment View: Bearish on zinc prices, and focus on the sustainability of inventory accumulation [89]. - Trading Strategy: Short - side trading for single - side trading, and pay attention to far - month reverse arbitrage [89]. 3.4 Nickel (NI) - Influencing Factors: Macro factors are neutral with mixed market sentiment. The raw material end is bullish with firm nickel ore prices and increasing imports. The smelting end is neutral with high - level production and cost pressures. The demand end is neutral - bearish with high - level stainless steel supply and uncertain demand, and increasing new - energy demand. The inventory is neutral with slightly decreasing but still high inventories [207]. - Investment View: Nickel prices are expected to oscillate in a wide range, and pay attention to the cost range of electrowinning nickel [207]. - Trading Strategy: Short - term range - bound trading for single - side trading, and wait - and - see for arbitrage [207].