两融继续回流，北上与ETF均有所净流出

Group 1: Macro Liquidity and Market Conditions - The US dollar index continued to rise, and the degree of "inversion" in the China-US interest rate spread deepened, with inflation expectations rebounding [1][13] - Domestic interbank liquidity remained overall loose, with the yield curve steepening as the 10Y-1Y spread continued to widen [1][22] - Market trading heat has decreased, with the volatility of the CSI 500, ChiNext, and Shenzhen 100 indices rising, while other major indices saw a decline in volatility [2][29] Group 2: Sector Performance and Analyst Predictions - Analysts have raised net profit forecasts for the entire A-share market for 2025/26, particularly in sectors such as oil and petrochemicals, building materials, pharmaceuticals, light industry, construction, consumer services, and transportation [2][4] - The net profit forecast for the Shanghai Composite and CSI 300 indices has been adjusted upwards, while the ChiNext index saw a downward adjustment [2][4.3] Group 3: Northbound Capital and Margin Trading - Northbound trading activity has decreased, with overall net selling of A-shares, particularly in sectors like food and beverage, electricity and utilities, non-ferrous metals, media, and agriculture [3][5] - Margin trading activity has slightly declined but remains at a high point since late March 2025, with significant net buying in sectors such as machinery, pharmaceuticals, military, and communications [3][6] Group 4: Fund Flows and ETF Activity - Active equity funds have seen a decrease in positions, with net redemptions from individual ETFs, particularly in sectors related to technology, military, and high-end manufacturing [5][8.4] - The correlation of active equity fund performance with large-cap growth has increased, while correlations with mid/small-cap growth and value have decreased [5][8.2] Group 5: Research and Sector Interest - Research interest remains high in sectors such as electronics, pharmaceuticals, home appliances, food and beverage, machinery, and computers, with rising interest in agriculture, machinery, consumer services, media, non-bank financials, and military sectors [4][44] - The research intensity for the top 100 holdings in active equity funds has increased, while the research intensity for the ChiNext, CSI 300, and CSI 500 has decreased [4][50]