Workflow
钢矿周度报告2025-05-19:贸易冲突缓和,黑色低位反弹-20250519
Zheng Xin Qi Huo·2025-05-19 08:41

Report Title - Trade conflict eases, black commodities rebound from lows. Steel and ore weekly report (May 19, 2025) [1] Report Authors - Xie Chen, Yang Hui from the Black Industry Group of Zhengxin Futures Industry Research Center [2] Report Main Views Steel - Price: Spot prices soared, and the futures market rebounded from lows. The main contract of rebar rose 1.99% to close at 3014, and the spot price in East China reached 3210 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan [6][11]. - Supply: Blast furnace production declined from its peak, while electric furnace production stopped falling and rebounded. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 84.15%, down 0.47 percentage points week-on-week. The average operating rate of 90 independent electric arc furnace steel mills was 75.2%, up 2.47 percentage points week-on-week [6][14][22]. - Inventory: Building material inventories were depleted at an accelerated pace, and plate inventories decreased simultaneously. Rebar mill inventories decreased by 3.28 tons week-on-week, and social inventories decreased by 30.48 tons. Hot-rolled coil mill inventories decreased by 6.58 tons, and social inventories decreased by 10.97 tons [6][39][43]. - Demand: Building material demand increased month-on-month, and plate demand remained resilient. From May 8th to May 14th, the national cement delivery volume was 3.5835 million tons, up 7.5% month-on-month. The apparent demand for hot-rolled coils remained high due to the 90-day export rush [6][28][31]. - Profit: Blast furnace profits continued to expand, and electric furnace profits at off-peak hours turned positive. The steel mill profitability rate was 59.31%, up 0.44 percentage points week-on-week. The average profit of independent electric arc furnace construction steel mills was -81 yuan/ton, and the off-peak profit was 24 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton week-on-week [6][36]. - Basis: The basis narrowed slightly, and attention was paid to reverse arbitrage opportunities. The basis of rebar 10 contract narrowed by 10 compared with last week [6][47]. - Summary: The easing of trade conflicts has digested the bullish factors, and the market may return to seasonal characteristics. Maintain a medium-term shorting strategy. Hold existing short positions and consider shorting lightly for those with no positions [6]. Iron Ore - Price: Ore prices rose slightly, and the futures market rebounded strongly. The main contract of iron ore rose 4.6% to close at 728, and the spot price of PB fines at Qingdao Port rose 11 yuan to 765 yuan/ton [6][59]. - Supply: Australian and Brazilian shipments declined, and arrivals decreased simultaneously. The global iron ore shipment volume was 30.29 million tons, down 220,000 tons week-on-week. The 47-port iron ore arrival volume was 25.7 million tons, down 640,000 tons week-on-week [6][62][68]. - Demand: Blast furnace production declined, but demand remained at a relatively high level. The average daily hot metal output of 247 steel mills was 2.4477 million tons, down 8,700 tons week-on-week [6][70][71]. - Inventory: Port inventories decreased slightly, and downstream inventories declined simultaneously. The 47-port iron ore inventory was 147.4699 million tons, down 180,000 tons week-on-week. The imported sinter powder inventory of 114 steel mills was 27.1467 million tons, down 443,300 tons week-on-week [6][78][81]. - Shipping: Shipping prices rebounded. The freight rate from Western Australia to China was 7.85 US dollars/ton, up 0.3 US dollars/ton week-on-week. The freight rate from Brazil to China was 18.8 US dollars/ton, up 0.37 US dollars/ton week-on-week [6][84]. - Spread: The futures spread widened, and the coke-to-ore ratio dropped significantly. The 9-1 spread of iron ore was 36, up 10 compared with last week. The coke-to-ore ratio was 1.99, and the rebar-to-ore ratio was 4.25, both narrowing [6][87][90]. - Summary: Last week, supply and demand both declined month-on-month. Affected by macro shocks, ore prices rebounded strongly. Considering the drag of finished products in the off-season, the probability of further price increases is low. Maintain a long-term bearish view and pay attention to trading opportunities when prices fall back to previous lows [6].