KAIYUAN SECURITIES·2025-05-19 07:45Investment Rating - The investment rating for the basic chemical industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights the stability of the phosphate rock market and the significant price difference between domestic and international phosphate fertilizers, indicating a positive outlook for integrated phosphate chemical companies in terms of profitability and dividend increases [3] - The report emphasizes the supply-side disturbances in glyphosate, with current product prices and profit margins under pressure due to historical lows. It suggests that overseas supply disruptions combined with domestic industry adjustments could improve competitive dynamics and enhance the bargaining power of leading companies [5][24] Summary by Sections Industry Trends - The chemical industry index outperformed the CSI 300 index by 0.7% this week, with 63.9% of chemical stocks showing weekly gains [10][18] - The CCPI (China Chemical Product Price Index) increased by 3.78% to 4175 points as of May 15 [21] Key Product Tracking - The report notes a decrease in inventory days for polyester filament, with prices for POY, FDY, and DTY rising significantly [34][35] - Domestic urea prices have also increased, driven by export policy expectations [34] Recommended and Beneficiary Stocks - Recommended stocks include leading companies such as Xingfa Group, Yangnong Chemical, and Hebang Biotechnology in the glyphosate sector [5][24] - Beneficiary stocks include Jiangshan Co., New安股份, and Guangxin Co. [5][24] Glyphosate Supply and Pricing - Global glyphosate production capacity is 1.18 million tons per year, with China accounting for 68.6% of this capacity. Major domestic producers include Xingfa Group, Fuhua Chemical, and Xin'an Co. [26][30] - Glyphosate prices have been declining, with current prices and price differentials at historically low levels [30][32]