高盛：中国耐用消费品-中美关税下调后的关税分析与评估更新

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an overall investment rating for the industry or specific companies covered Core Insights - The recent US-China tariff rollback is expected to benefit covered companies directly through reduced tariff costs and indirectly through lower inflation and potentially higher household cash flows [2][4] - The report anticipates that the 90-day window for tariff negotiations may lead to faster-than-expected export growth in Q2 and Q3 as Chinese OEMs resume production for US orders [4] - The report highlights that different companies will have varying impacts from the tariff changes, with OEMs likely to maintain profitability-focused strategies while brands may adopt divergent pricing strategies [6][10] Summary by Sections Tariff Rollback Impact - The US will reduce its tariff increase on China from 145 basis points to 30 basis points, while China will lower its effective tariff rate on US imports to around 30% [1][2] - The tariff rollback is larger than previously expected, leading to revised GDP forecasts for both the US and China [2] Company-Specific Impacts - Companies like Xinbao are expected to see faster revenue growth due to their leading position in the small appliances sector, while brands like Anker, Roborock, and Ecovacs may experience limited revenue changes in the current quarter but better growth in H2 2025 [6][21] - The report revises EPS forecasts for Anker, Xinbao, Roborock, and Ecovacs upwards by 2%-9% for 2025-2027, reflecting the alleviation of demand and margin pressures [21][23] Capital Expenditure and Production Strategies - Limited changes in CAPEX plans are expected in the near term due to ongoing uncertainty regarding future tariff rates [5] - Companies are likely to continue leveraging ASEAN countries for manufacturing, depending on future US tariff rates on the region [5] Share Price and Valuation - Share prices of covered companies rebounded after initial corrections, with major white goods companies expected to be least impacted due to diversified production bases [10][11] - The report notes divergent performance across sub-sectors, with some companies like Anker facing greater downside risks despite a rebound in share prices [11][20]