Citi(US:C)2025-05-19 08:55Investment Rating - The report maintains a GDP growth forecast of 4.7% YoY for 2025E [5] Core Insights - China's economy showed resilience in April despite trade tensions, with a real growth rate potentially exceeding 5.0% YoY, driven by strong industrial production growth of 6.1% YoY and services production index rising 6.0% YoY [3][10] - The exports-driven growth model appears to be re-emerging, with external demand outpacing domestic demand, although domestic retail sales and fixed-asset investment have weakened more than expected [4][10] - The report anticipates limited fiscal policy changes, with only a 10 basis points policy rate cut and a 50 basis points RRR cut expected in the second half of 2025 [5] Economic Performance - Industrial production exceeded expectations at 6.1% YoY in April, while fixed-asset investment softened to 4.0% YoY for January-April [10][11] - Exports-oriented sectors supported industrial production, with significant growth in machinery and equipment exports, while the property sector showed signs of weakness [12] - Retail sales growth decelerated to 5.1% YoY in April, falling short of market expectations, primarily due to declines in petrol and car sales [18][23] Sector Analysis - The new economy sectors, particularly high-tech, continued to perform well, with value added expanding 10.0% YoY and industrial robots' output surging 51.5% YoY [12] - The property sector showed marginal softening, with property sales down 2.8% YoY in volume terms and property investment contracting 10.3% YoY in the first four months [12] - Retail sales of home appliances and furniture remained strong, with growth rates of 38.8% YoY and 26.9% YoY respectively, while auto sales faced challenges [20][21]