股指期货策略早餐-20250519

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Views of the Report - The short - term view of stock index futures is range - bound with the CSI 300 Index showing relative resilience, and the medium - term view is bullish. For bond futures, the short - term view is a volatile rebound, and the medium - term view is bullish. For copper, the short - term view is a 77000 - 78700 range fluctuation, and the medium - term view is a 66000 - 90000 range fluctuation. Industrial silicon is expected to run weakly in the short - term and be under pressure in the medium - term. Polysilicon is expected to run weakly in the short - term and at a low level in the medium - term. Lithium carbonate is expected to continue to decline in the short - term and experience a steady price drop with weakening cost support in the medium - term [1][2][4][6][10][12] Summary by Related Catalogs Financial Futures and Options Stock Index Futures - Varieties: IF, IH, IC, IM - Intraday View: Range - bound, with the CSI 300 Index showing relative resilience - Medium - term View: Bullish - Reference Strategy: Hold long positions in IF2506 and a hedging portfolio of long IF206 and short IM2506 - Core Logic: Sino - US tariff relaxation boosts short - term risk appetite, but trade negotiation uncertainties remain. Policy support for the capital market encourages medium - and low - risk - preference funds to increase allocations in weighted sectors such as the CSI 300 or dividend assets [1] Bond Futures - Varieties: TS, TF, T, TL - Intraday View: Volatile rebound - Medium - term View: Bullish - Reference Strategy: Hold long positions in T2509 or TL2509 - Core Logic: Weak domestic demand in April's inflation and financial data may lead to further monetary policy easing. After the reserve requirement ratio cut, short - term liquidity tightened [2][3] Commodity Futures and Options Metal and New Energy Materials Sector - Copper - Intraday View: Fluctuate within the 77000 - 78700 range - Medium - term View: Fluctuate within the 66000 - 90000 range - Reference Strategy: Adopt a range - trading approach - Core Logic: US restrictions on chip exports may drag down the US stock market. Kazakhstan's refined copper production declined in 2025. China's copper exports increased, but domestic copper demand in some sectors is expected to decline. Copper inventories show a mixed trend. Tariff trade wars and domestic supply - demand changes will affect copper prices [4][5] Industrial Silicon - Intraday View: Run weakly within the 8100 - 8300 range - Medium - term View: Be under pressure within the 7900 - 9000 range - Reference Strategy: Sell SI2506 - C - 11000 until expiration and short the futures - Core Logic: In April 2025, production declined, but demand declined more, and the inventory is at a high level, leading to a continued supply - surplus situation [6][8][9] Polysilicon - Intraday View: Run weakly within the 36500 - 37000 range - Medium - term View: Run at a low level within the 35000 - 40000 range - Reference Strategy: Sell PS2506 - C - 47000 - Core Logic: In April 2025, production and demand both declined, and the inventory is at a high level, indicating a significant supply surplus [10][11] Lithium Carbonate - Intraday View: Continue to decline within the 60000 - 63000 range - Medium - term View: Experience a steady price drop with weakening cost support within the 59000 - 65000 range - Reference Strategy: Sell LC2507 - C - 83000 - Core Logic: The spot price is continuously falling. In April 2025, production increased, and the total inventory is at a high level, which is negative for the price [12]