ZHESHANG SECURITIES·2025-05-19 08:59Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [1] Core Insights - The report highlights strong growth in the number of coffee and Western fast-food outlets, while the tea beverage sector is experiencing increasing differentiation [2][3] - The net opening numbers for various brands indicate a competitive landscape, with some brands expanding rapidly while others are contracting [4][8] Summary by Sections Net Opening Trends - In the first four months of 2025, the net opening numbers for various sectors are as follows: - Coffee: 1,921 net openings, a 9% increase - Western fast food: 585 net openings, a 5% increase - Tea: -359 net openings, a 7% decrease [3][4] Customer Price Trends - Customer price trends for major brands show varying performance: - KFC: -1.6% in August 2023, worsening to -3.9% by December 2024 - McDonald's: -1.1% in August 2023, worsening to -0.1% by December 2024 - Starbucks: -1.1% in August 2023, worsening to -2.3% by December 2024 [7][12] Coffee and Hot Pot Sector - The coffee sector shows strong growth with notable net openings: - Luckin Coffee: 1,474 net openings, a 7% increase - Starbucks: 49 net openings, a 1% increase [10] - The hot pot sector shows mixed results with some brands experiencing declines in net openings [11] Tea Sector - The tea sector is characterized by a rapid expansion of certain brands like Mixue Ice Cream and Tea, which saw 3,123 net openings, a 9% increase, while others like Heytea and Nayuki are facing challenges with negative net openings [8][9] Other Food Categories - The report indicates a contraction in the number of outlets for categories like pickled fish and snacks, with brands like Tai Er and Yu Ni Zai Yi Qi showing negative net openings [13][14]