消费基金阶段收益拆解及基金经理精选：刚需韧性+新消费破局，消费基金的Alpha掘金路径

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The consumer market has shown significant structural differentiation and opportunities. New consumption sectors such as trendy toys, pet economy, and AI+ have emerged, while traditional sectors like liquor have faced challenges due to economic pressure [21]. - Different stages of the consumer market are characterized by distinct investment styles. For example, in the core - asset - dominated stage, low - turnover and growth - style consumer funds outperformed; in the market - oscillation stage, value - style funds with flexible and diversified holdings had an edge [36][57]. - The performance of consumer funds is closely related to macro - economic conditions, policy support, and market sentiment. In weak market environments, dividend - value style funds with strong stock - picking abilities tend to perform better [70]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Consumption Market Historical Review - Core Asset Dominated (20190101 - 20210210): The market trended upward. The relaxation of domestic policies, inflow of foreign capital, and economic recovery promoted investment opportunities in the consumer sector, especially in the liquor industry. The CSI Liquor Index rose over 350% [13]. - Repeated Oscillation (20210218 - 20230116): Factors such as the pandemic, macro - economic pressure, and geopolitical issues led to market oscillations. There were structural rotation opportunities in high - end consumption, pig farming, and other sectors [13]. - Oscillation Decline (20230117 - 20240202): The market first rose and then declined. The weak economic recovery and low consumer confidence led to a decline in the consumer industry, especially in the real - estate post - cycle and food and beverage industries. The CSI Liquor Index fell nearly 38% [21]. - New Consumption Dominated (20240205 - 20250415): The consumer market showed structural differentiation. New consumption sectors such as trendy toys, pet economy, and AI+ performed well, while the liquor industry still faced pressure. The CSI Liquor Index fell 3.8%, and the Xinhua SHS Emerging Consumption Index rose 53% [21]. 3.2 Consumption Fund Holdings - Stock - holding Proportion: The proportion of liquor holdings in consumer funds reached a peak in 2023 (about 41%) and then declined to about 30% in 2024. The proportion of new - consumption holdings increased from about 10% in 2019 to 25.7% at the end of 2024 [29]. - Stock - holding Contribution: Liquor has been the main source of continuous contribution to consumer funds since 2019. New - consumption stocks have made significant contributions since 2024, with companies like Pop Mart leading the way [29]. - HK Stock Holdings: Consumer funds' holdings of HK stocks are mainly concentrated in the new - consumption field. The proportion of HK - stock holdings increased in 2020 and 2024, mainly due to the layout of new consumption [33]. 3.3 Fund Return Sources and Portraits - Stage One (20190101 - 20210210): High - growth consumer funds with low turnover and high retention of heavy - position stocks outperformed. The expansion of liquor channels and the upgrade of price ranges drove the growth of the consumer market [36]. - Stage Two (20210218 - 20230116): Funds with a balanced and slightly value - oriented style and flexible and diversified holdings performed better. The moderate increase in CPI and the decline in PPI benefited the consumer industry, and value - type consumer stocks showed high defensive properties [57]. - Stage Three (20230117 - 20240202): Funds with a deep - value style and strong alpha capabilities outperformed. In a weak market environment, low - volatility, high - dividend stocks became a safe haven for funds [70]. - Stage Four (20240205 - 20250411): The elasticity and stock - picking ability of consumer funds in the new - consumption field became the key to returns. Traditional companies' second - growth curves and the growth of new consumption drove the performance of consumer funds [84]. 3.4 Consumption ETF Funds - A股 - related ETFs: There are ETF funds corresponding to 5 A - share consumer comprehensive indices, with the largest number (3) and total scale (27 billion yuan) corresponding to the CSI Consumption 50 Index [95]. - 港股 - related ETFs: There are ETF funds corresponding to 5 HK - stock consumer comprehensive indices, with the largest number (4) corresponding to the CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Consumption Index and the largest total scale (33.5 billion yuan) corresponding to the Hang Seng Consumption Index [95].