金属周期品高频数据周报：氧化铝、电解铝价格创近1个月来新高-20250519

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the steel and non-ferrous metals sectors [5]. Core Insights - Aluminum oxide and electrolytic aluminum prices have reached new highs in nearly a month, indicating a potential upward trend in metal prices [1]. - The financing environment for small and medium enterprises has deteriorated, with the BCI index dropping to 48.03 in April 2025, a decrease of 7.24% month-on-month [1][20]. - The steel industry is expected to recover to historical profit levels due to new regulatory conditions set by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology [4]. Summary by Sections Liquidity - The M1 and M2 growth rate difference was -6.5 percentage points in April 2025, a month-on-month decrease of 1.10 percentage points [1][11]. - The total liabilities of the Federal Reserve were reported at $6.67 trillion, reflecting a 0.04% increase week-on-week [11]. Infrastructure and Real Estate Chain - Rebar prices have rebounded from an eight-month low, with a week-on-week increase of 1.59% [1]. - The national steel PMI new order index was 51% in April 2025, an increase of 9.9 percentage points from the previous month [1][40]. Industrial Products Chain - The operating rate of semi-steel tires reached 78.33%, a month-on-month increase of 19.98 percentage points [2]. - Major commodity prices showed varied performance, with copper and aluminum prices increasing by 0.57% and 3.48% respectively [2]. Sub-sectors - Tungsten concentrate prices have reached the highest level since 2011, while aluminum oxide and electrolytic aluminum prices have also hit recent highs [2]. - The price of electrolytic aluminum was reported at 20,230 yuan per ton, with a month-on-month increase of 3.48% [2][10]. Valuation Metrics - The Shanghai Composite Index increased by 1.12%, with the steel and industrial metals sectors showing relative PB ratios of 37.68% and 60.08% respectively [4]. - The PB ratio for the steel sector relative to the Shanghai Composite is currently at 0.53, with a historical high of 0.82 [4]. Real Estate Completion Chain - The gross profit margins for titanium dioxide and flat glass are currently at low levels, with flat glass margins reported at -38 yuan per ton [2][76]. - The operating rate for flat glass was stable at 75% [2]. Export Chain - The new export order PMI for China was reported at 44.70% in April 2025, a decrease of 4.3 percentage points month-on-month [3].