Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-05-19 10:00Report Overview - Report title: "Shanghai Tin Industry Daily Report 2025-05-19" [2] - Researcher: Wang Fuhui [3] - Futures qualification number: F03123381 [3] - Investment consulting certificate number: Z0019878 [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - Predicts the US economy to slow but avoid recession in 2025, with a possible single - rate cut; US economic growth may range from 0.5% to 1%. In China, consumption, investment, and industrial production show positive trends. Tin supply is expected to increase in mid - June as Myanmar's tin mine resumes production and Congo's Bisie mine plans phased restart. Refining tin smelters in Yunnan face raw material pressure and those in Jiangxi are restricted by scrap supply, with a combined operating rate of 57.16%. Tin demand from solder processing is stable but lacks growth, and tin - plated sheet enterprises' operating rates are stable with weak sales prices and cautious inventory demand. Spot premiums are down to 400 yuan/ton, with slow inventory reduction. Technically, tin prices are expected to fluctuate upward in a range, and short - term long - biased trading in the 261,000 - 270,000 yuan range is recommended [3] Summary by Directory 1. Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai tin futures contract is 264,860 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; the 6 - 7 - month contract price is down 20 yuan. LME 3 - month tin is at 32,816 dollars/ton, down 158 dollars. The main contract's open interest is 26,917 lots, down 1,742 lots. The net position of the top 20 futures is 68 lots, up 249 lots. LME tin total inventory is 2,735 tons, down 10 tons; Shanghai Futures Exchange tin inventory is 8,417 tons, down 302 tons; Shanghai Futures Exchange tin warrants are 8,119 tons, down 64 tons [3] 2. Spot Market - The SMM 1 tin spot price is 265,100 yuan/ton, down 400 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous market 1 tin spot price is 264,880 yuan/ton, down 560 yuan. The basis of the main Shanghai tin contract is 240 yuan/ton, down 500 yuan. LME tin's 0 - 3 spread is - 82 dollars/ton, up 45 dollars. The monthly import of tin ore and concentrates is 1.21 million tons, down 0.29 million tons. The average price of 40% tin concentrate is 246,300 yuan/ton, down 31,200 yuan [3] 3. Upstream Situation - The average processing fee for 40% tin concentrate by Antaike is 11,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average processing fee for 60% tin concentrate is 7,500 yuan/ton, unchanged. The average price of 60% tin concentrate is 250,300 yuan/ton, down 31,200 yuan [3] 4. Industry Situation - The monthly output of refined tin is 1.4 million tons, down 0.16 million tons. The monthly import of refined tin is 3,762.32 tons, up 143.24 tons [3] 5. Downstream Situation - The price of 60A solder bars in Gejiu is 172,200 yuan/ton, down 630 yuan. The cumulative output of tin - plated sheets is 160.14 million tons, up 14.45 million tons. The monthly export of tin - plated sheets is 14.07 million tons, down 3.39 million tons [3] 6. Industry News - From January to April, China's social retail sales increased 5.1% year - on - year, 0.5 percentage points faster than the previous month and 0.24% month - on - month. The "trade - in" policy boosted car and home - appliance sales. Retail sales of household appliances, cultural and office supplies, furniture, and communication equipment increased by 38.8%, 33.5%, 26.9%, and 19.9% respectively. National online retail sales grew 7.7% year - on - year. National fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) was 1.47024 trillion yuan, up 4.0% year - on - year; excluding real - estate investment, it grew 8.0%. Infrastructure investment increased 5.8%, manufacturing investment 8.8%, and real - estate investment decreased 10.3% [3] 7. Key Points of Attention - No news on the day [3]