Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-05-19 10:17Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply side of lead is affected by price uncertainty, resulting in a decline in the operating rate and output of primary lead smelters. The continuous decline in lead prices has expanded the loss pressure of secondary lead, and secondary lead smelters have been forced to lower their operating rates due to losses and raw material constraints. The demand side has weak support for lead prices, with overall light market transactions. Overseas inventories are decreasing, but the decline is small, and demand is significantly affected by tariffs. Domestic inventories are slightly increasing, and overseas prices are suppressing the upward space of domestic prices. The lead concentrate processing fee remains low, which has an impact on the resumption of production of secondary and primary lead. It is recommended to short on rallies [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai lead contract is 16,860 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the LME 3 - month lead quotation is 2,000 US dollars/ton, down 4.5 US dollars. The 06 - 07 month contract spread of Shanghai lead is - 25 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan. The Shanghai lead open interest is 68,494 lots, an increase of 835 lots. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai lead is - 1,875 lots, an increase of 3 lots. The Shanghai lead warehouse receipts are 49,921 tons, an increase of 502 tons. The SHFE inventory is 55,472 tons, an increase of 5,968 tons, and the LME lead inventory is 248,850 tons, a decrease of 1,825 tons [2]. 现货市场 - The spot price of 1 lead in Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 16,725 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the spot price of 1 lead in Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 16,890 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan. The basis of the lead main contract is - 135 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan. The LME lead premium (0 - 3) is - 4.45 US dollars/ton, an increase of 0.38 US dollars. The price of lead concentrate (50% - 60%) in Jiyuan is 16,078 yuan, an increase of 149 yuan. The price of domestic secondary lead (≥98.5%) is 16,630 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The WBMS lead supply - demand balance is - 18,700 tons, an increase of 7,100 tons. The number of secondary lead production enterprises is 68, an increase of 3. The capacity utilization rate of secondary lead is 54.41%, an increase of 18.29 percentage points. The monthly output of secondary lead is 224,200 tons, a decrease of 67,500 tons. The average operating rate of primary lead is 74.66%, a decrease of 2.85 percentage points, and the weekly output of primary lead is 34,500 tons, a decrease of 800 tons. The processing fee of lead concentrate (60%) at major ports is - 20 US dollars/kiloton, unchanged. The ILZSG lead supply - demand balance is 16,400 tons, an increase of 48,800 tons. The global lead ore output is 399,700 tons, a decrease of 3,700 tons. The monthly lead ore import volume is 119,700 tons, an increase of 24,800 tons [2]. Industrial Situation - The monthly refined lead import volume is 815.37 tons, a decrease of 1,021.76 tons. The domestic average processing fee of lead concentrate to the factory is 720 yuan/ton, unchanged. The monthly refined lead export volume is 2,109.62 tons, an increase of 223.33 tons. The average price of waste batteries in the market is 10,082.14 yuan/ton, down 46.43 yuan [2]. Downstream Situation - The monthly export volume of batteries is 41.45 million, a decrease of 425,000. The average price of lead - antimony alloy (for batteries, containing 2% antimony) is 20,750 yuan/ton, down 125 yuan. The Shenwan industry index of batteries is 1,647.12 points, an increase of 2.61 points. The monthly automobile output is 3.0446 million, a decrease of 454,000. The monthly new - energy vehicle output is 1.647 million, an increase of 73,000 [2]. Industry News - In April 2025, the added value of the non - ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry increased by 7.5% year - on - year, and the cumulative added value from January to April increased by 6.9% year - on - year. The output of ten non - ferrous metals in April was 6.76 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.1%; the cumulative output from January to April was 26.6 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 2.3%. Among them, the output of electrolytic aluminum in April was 3.75 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.2%; the output of electrolytic aluminum from January to April was 14.79 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 3.4%. Moody's downgraded the US sovereign credit rating from Aaa to Aa1 and adjusted the outlook from "negative" to "stable" [2].