瑞达期货沪锌产业日报-20250519

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The US economy is expected to slow down this year but not enter a recession, and there may be a rate cut in 2025, with growth projected between 0.5% and 1%. In China, since April, multiple sectors like consumption, investment, and industrial production have shown positive trends under the coordinated action of macro - policies. [3] - Fundamentally, the import volume of zinc ore at home and abroad has increased, zinc ore processing fees have continued to rise, and the sulfuric acid price has risen significantly. Refineries' profits have further recovered, production enthusiasm has increased, and overall production will continue to grow. Although the import window is currently closed, previously imported zinc is gradually flowing in. [3] - On the demand side, the demand in the traditional peak season for downstream industries is gradually warming up. However, the recent rise in zinc prices has weakened downstream bargain - hunting purchases, leading to a decline in spot premiums. Domestic social inventories have slightly increased, while overseas inventories continue to decline. The real estate sector at the end - user level has marginally improved but still drags down demand. [3] - Technically, the position has decreased. The price of zinc is expected to fluctuate and adjust. It is recommended to wait and see or conduct range - bound operations. [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai zinc main contract is 22,455 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan; the 06 - 07 contract spread of Shanghai zinc is 210 yuan/ton, up 65 yuan. - The LME three - month zinc quotation is 2,691.5 dollars/ton, down 33 dollars. - The total position of Shanghai zinc is 222,642 lots, up 22 lots; the net position of the top 20 in Shanghai zinc is - 5,863 lots, down 3,884 lots; the Shanghai zinc warehouse receipt is 1,701 tons, down 474 tons. - The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 46,351 tons (weekly), down 751 tons; the LME inventory is 164,200 tons, down 975 tons. [3] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of 0 zinc on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 22,650 yuan/ton, down 120 yuan; the spot price of 1 zinc in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 22,410 yuan/ton, down 110 yuan. - The basis of the ZN main contract is 195 yuan/ton, down 75 yuan; the LME zinc forward premium (0 - 3) is - 20.95 dollars/ton, up 1.43 dollars. - The factory - delivered price of 50% zinc concentrate in Kunming is 17,680 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan; the price of 85% - 86% crushed zinc in Shanghai is 16,250 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan. [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The WBMS zinc supply - demand balance is - 124,700 tons (monthly), a decrease of 104,100 tons; the ILZSG zinc supply - demand balance is - 69,100 tons (monthly), an increase of 10,400 tons. - The global zinc ore production value of ILZSG is 1,007,500 tons (monthly), down 4,300 tons; the domestic refined zinc production is 615,000 tons (monthly), up 18,000 tons. - The zinc ore import volume is 455,900 tons (monthly), up 124,900 tons. [3] 3.4 Industry Situation - The refined zinc import volume is 35,156.02 tons (monthly), down 22,615.39 tons; the refined zinc export volume is 483.88 tons (monthly), up 266.83 tons. - The social inventory of zinc is 67,700 tons (weekly), up 700 tons. [3] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The production value of galvanized sheets is 2.32 million tons (monthly), down 130,000 tons; the sales volume of galvanized sheets is 2.34 million tons (monthly), down 120,000 tons. - The new housing construction area is 129.9646 million square meters (monthly), up 63.8246 million square meters; the housing completion area is 130.6027 million square meters (monthly), up 42.9606 million square meters. - The automobile production is 3.0446 million vehicles (monthly), down 454,000 vehicles; the air - conditioner production is 19.6788 million units (monthly), up 3.4764 million units. [3] 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of the zinc at - the - money call option is 16.28% (daily), down 0.56%; the implied volatility of the zinc at - the - money put option is 16.28% (daily), down 0.56%. - The 20 - day historical volatility of the zinc at - the - money option is 11.86% (daily), down 0.05%; the 60 - day historical volatility of the zinc at - the - money option is 16.75% (daily), down 0.02%. [3] 3.7 Industry News - In April, China's total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 5.1% year - on - year, 0.5 percentage points faster than the previous month, and increased by 0.24% month - on - month. The "trade - in" policy drove the continuous improvement of products such as automobiles and home appliances. The retail sales of household appliances and audio - visual equipment, cultural and office supplies, furniture, and communication equipment of units above the designated size increased by 38.8%, 33.5%, 26.9%, and 19.9% respectively. The national online retail sales increased by 7.7% compared with the previous year. - From January to April, the national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) was 1.47024 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.0%. Excluding real estate development investment, the national fixed - asset investment increased by 8.0%. Infrastructure investment increased by 5.8% year - on - year, manufacturing investment increased by 8.8%, and real estate development investment decreased by 10.3%. - Atlanta Fed President Bostic said that he expects the US economy to slow down this year but not enter a recession, and reiterated that there may be a rate cut in 2025. He said that the US economic growth this year may be between 0.5% and 1%. [3]