评估泰国的债务上限——重新校准的空间？（英）2025

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for Thailand's debt ceiling or fiscal policies Core Insights - Thailand's public debt is approaching the ceiling of 70 percent of GDP, raising concerns about fiscal prudence and the adequacy of the current debt ceiling [4][12] - The analysis suggests that the debt limit for Thailand could be in the range of 77-87 percent of GDP, with a midpoint estimate of 82 percent [43] - The current debt ceiling is deemed broadly consistent with the estimated debt limit, but a larger safety margin is recommended to account for contingent liabilities and additional spending needs [46][48] Summary by Sections A. Introduction - Thailand's debt ceiling is set at 70 percent of GDP, raised from 60 percent in 2021 to accommodate COVID-19 related measures [13][14] - The fiscal framework aims to ensure fiscal responsibility and debt sustainability across various public sector entities [13] B. Assessing Thailand's Debt Ceiling - The report employs three approaches to estimate Thailand's debt limit: primary balance and debt dynamics, debt servicing capacity, and impact on growth [30] - The first approach estimates a debt limit range of 80-110 percent of GDP, while the second approach suggests a range of 82-100 percent of GDP based on debt servicing capacity [10][12][37] - The third approach indicates that growth-maximizing debt levels range from 31 to 77 percent of GDP [41] - The analysis concludes that the debt ceiling should be set below the estimated debt limit to provide a safety margin against macroeconomic shocks [45] C. Conclusions and Policy Implications - The report recommends refraining from raising the debt ceiling further and suggests fiscal consolidation to restore fiscal space [52] - It emphasizes the need for improved fiscal rules and transparency to avoid unexpected debt increases [54][55]