社零数据点评：4月社零+5.1%，可选消费持续亮眼

Investment Rating - Industry rating: Recommended [4] Core Views - The retail sector shows strong performance, with significant growth in categories such as furniture, cultural office supplies, cosmetics, and gold and silver jewelry, with respective growth rates of +26.9%, +33.5%, +7.2%, and +25.3% in April 2025 [6][10] - The real estate sector is expected to stabilize as policies continue to support recovery, with a focus on urban renewal and high-quality housing supply [2][3] Summary by Relevant Sections Retail Sector - In April 2025, the overall retail sales growth was +5.1%, slightly below the consensus forecast of +5.48% [1] - Online retail sales growth for the first four months of 2025 was +7.7%, outperforming the overall market [6] - The "Consumption Promotion Special Action Plan" emphasizes support for upgrading consumer goods, which is expected to boost demand in the home furnishing sector [3] Real Estate Sector - The new housing starts, completion, sales area, and residential development investment for January to April 2025 showed declines of -22.3%, -16.8%, -2.1%, and -9.6% respectively [2] - The central government's policies aim to implement more proactive macroeconomic measures, particularly in the real estate sector, to stabilize the market [2] Investment Recommendations - For the home furnishing sector, the report recommends companies like Oppein Home, Kuka Home, and others, anticipating steady growth driven by policy support and demand recovery [7] - In the cultural office supplies sector, Morning Glory Co. is highlighted for its strong channel advantages and growth in new retail business [7] - The cosmetics sector is expected to thrive due to the "beauty economy," with recommendations for domestic brands like Runben and Pechoin [7] - Gold and silver jewelry consumption is projected to remain robust, with recommendations for companies that possess craftsmanship and luxury attributes [7]