SINOTRANS(601598) Changjiang Securities·2025-05-19 11:43Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [8] Core Views - In Q1 2025, the company's operating revenue was 23.77 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2.2%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 640 million yuan, down 19.8% year-on-year. The main business operations remained stable, with a decline in investment income impacting overall performance [2][6] - The company experienced a 36.1% year-on-year decline in net investment income to 310 million yuan, primarily due to pressure on the performance of its subsidiary, Sinotrans DHL [2][6] - The report highlights the impact of U.S. tariff policies and the cancellation of small package exemptions, which are expected to affect air and sea freight demand on European and American routes. Close attention is needed on the subsequent tariff policies affecting the company's agency business and its subsidiary [2][6] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company's gross profit increased by 10.3% year-on-year to 1.38 billion yuan, with a gross margin improvement of 0.7 percentage points to 5.8%. The operating expenses ratio decreased by 0.2 percentage points to 4.1% [2][11] - The company's logistics volume showed mixed results, with contract logistics down 2.0% year-on-year, while project logistics and chemical logistics increased by 21.6% and 13.9%, respectively [11] Market Outlook - The company is actively expanding into emerging markets in Southeast Asia to mitigate the impact of tariff shocks. Strategic overseas network development is underway, with the completion of the second phase of the warehouse in Thailand [2][11] - The projected net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025, 2026, and 2027 is estimated at 3.56 billion, 3.73 billion, and 4.05 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 10.2, 9.8, and 9.0 times [2][11]