BABA-阿里巴巴-W：4QFY25财报点评：CMR增长超预期，云收入继续加速-20250519

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [6][24][25] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 236.5 billion yuan for FY25Q4, representing a year-over-year growth of 7%, with notable performance in e-commerce and cloud services [1][8] - The adjusted EBITA for the quarter was 32.6 billion yuan, up 36% year-over-year, driven by revenue growth and improved operational efficiency [1][8] - The company announced a dividend of $0.25 per share for FY25, emphasizing its commitment to shareholder returns [1][8] Summary by Sections E-commerce Performance - Taobao Group's revenue reached 101.4 billion yuan, growing 9% year-over-year, with a CMR increase of 12% [2][13] - The adjusted EBITA margin for Taobao Group was 41.2%, slightly down by 0.1 percentage points year-over-year [2][14] - The company is focusing on enhancing its instant retail capabilities through the launch of Taobao Flash Purchase [2][14] Cloud Computing - Cloud business revenue was 30.1 billion yuan, reflecting an 18% year-over-year increase, primarily driven by double-digit growth in public cloud services [3][15] - AI-related product revenue continued to grow at triple-digit rates for the seventh consecutive quarter [3][15] - The company maintained its three-year CAPEX plan of 380 billion yuan, with a CAPEX of 24.6 billion yuan for the quarter, up 68% year-over-year [3][15] Financial Projections - Revenue forecasts for FY2026 and FY2027 have been adjusted to 1,052.0 billion yuan and 1,124.6 billion yuan, respectively, reflecting a 2% downward adjustment [4][25] - The adjusted net profit forecasts for FY2026 and FY2027 are 166.9 billion yuan and 182.1 billion yuan, respectively, also reflecting a 3% downward adjustment [4][25] - The company is projected to have a PE ratio of 13 times for FY2026 [4][25] Shareholder Returns - The company repurchased approximately$ 6 billion worth of shares in the quarter, totaling about 119 billion yuan for the fiscal year [1][24] - The total shareholder return for FY25 is estimated at around 16.5 billion yuan, corresponding to a shareholder return rate of approximately 5% [1][24]