Soochow Securities·2025-05-19 12:35Investment Rating - The report recommends investment in the shipbuilding sector, specifically highlighting companies such as China Shipbuilding, China Heavy Industry, China Ship Defense, China Power, and others as key players in the industry [2][4]. Core Insights - The shipbuilding sector is experiencing robust growth with a revenue of 210.3 billion yuan in 2024, marking a 12% year-on-year increase, and a net profit of 7.2 billion yuan, which is a 103% increase compared to the previous year [3][13]. - The order backlog remains strong, with a significant increase in high-value orders, indicating a positive outlook for revenue and profit margin recovery in the coming years [27][40]. - The global shipbuilding market is characterized by a supply-demand gap, with a hand-held order coverage of 3.8 years, which is at a historical high, while the proportion of hand-held orders in total capacity is at a historical low of 12% [52][56]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Profit Growth - In 2024, the shipbuilding sector achieved a revenue of 210.3 billion yuan, a 12% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 7.2 billion yuan, reflecting a 103% growth [3][13]. - The first quarter of 2025 continued this trend with a revenue of 45.1 billion yuan, also up 12% year-on-year, indicating sustained growth [7][13]. Order Backlog and Market Dynamics - As of Q1 2025, the global shipbuilding order backlog reached 381 million deadweight tons, a 2% increase from the end of 2024, with expectations for a delivery volume of 97.28 million deadweight tons in 2025, representing a 9% increase [52][47]. - The report notes that the ship price index remains high, with a slight decrease of 1% in Q1 2025, indicating a stable pricing environment despite fluctuations [40][36]. Competitive Landscape - The report highlights that despite challenges from U.S. sanctions, China's position as a global leader in shipbuilding remains unshaken, with a market share of approximately 54% in new orders as of Q1 2025 [71][80]. - The average age of the global fleet is increasing, leading to a projected demand for new vessels, with an estimated annual delivery requirement of about 110 million deadweight tons from 2025 to 2030, driven largely by the need to replace aging ships [59][60]. Future Outlook - The shipbuilding sector is expected to continue benefiting from high demand for bulk carriers, with a focus on high-value orders and improved profit margins as the industry recovers from previous downturns [27][4]. - The report anticipates that the transition to alternative energy vessels will accelerate, driven by stricter environmental regulations and the need for fleet modernization [60][61].