小米集团（1810.HK）：强劲的AIoT销售推动1Q25利润增长；关注XRING及战略产品发布会新品；买入

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for Xiaomi Corp. (1810.HK) with a 12-month target price of HK$62.00, representing an upside potential of 21.6% from the current price of HK$51.00 [1]. Core Insights - Strong sales in the AIoT segment are expected to drive higher profits in 1Q25, with significant growth in various product categories [1][2]. - The upcoming strategic product launch event is anticipated to unveil key innovations, including the XRING O1 chip and new premium smartphone models, which could enhance Xiaomi's competitive position [2][3]. - The report highlights Xiaomi's structural market share gains in China, particularly against competitors like Apple and Honor, despite a less optimistic overseas shipment outlook [3]. Financial Performance - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 remain largely unchanged, while adjusted net profit forecasts have been raised by 3-6% due to stronger IoT sales and gross profit outlook [17]. - For 1Q25, revenue is projected to grow by 45% year-on-year to RMB 109.5 billion, with adjusted net profit expected to increase by 70% year-on-year to RMB 9.4 billion [17]. Market Position and Growth - In the AIoT segment, Xiaomi's domestic sales of air conditioners, washing machines, and refrigerators saw year-on-year growth of 103%, 184%, and 145%, respectively, in 1Q25 [16]. - Xiaomi's tablet shipments grew by 57% year-on-year in 1Q25, achieving a No.3 market share globally and in China [16]. - The report anticipates that sales from large appliances and tablets will contribute approximately 40% of AIoT sales by 2027, up from around 30% in 2024 [16][37]. Valuation and Price Target - The 12-month SOTP-based target price for Xiaomi has been adjusted to HK$62, based on a 23x 2026E EV/NOPAT for Xiaomi core and a DCF-based valuation for Xiaomi EV at US$74 billion [18]. - The report indicates multiple share price catalysts in the coming months, including the strategic product launch event and 1Q25 results [19].