短期提振与长期忧虑

Market Performance - Major global stock markets experienced collective gains, with the NASDAQ, S&P 500, and Dow Jones increasing by +7.2%, +5.3%, and +3.4% respectively[3] - European indices also rose, with France's CAC40, UK's FTSE 100, and Germany's DAX increasing by +1.8%, +1.5%, and +1.1% respectively[3] - The Taiwan Weighted Index led gains in the Asia-Pacific region[3] Trade Relations - The temporary suspension of high tariffs in US-China negotiations has boosted market risk appetite, although uncertainty remains after the 90-day period[3] - The average tariff imposed by the US on China remains above 40%, despite the temporary suspension of certain tariffs[3] - The strategic pause in US-China trade tensions may be aimed at facilitating negotiations with Southeast Asian countries, which could impact US inflation and economic conditions[3] Economic Indicators - The Federal Reserve's willingness to cut interest rates has decreased, with market expectations shifting towards maintaining current rates in June and July[3] - Recent economic data indicates signs of recession, with April PPI growth below expectations and a decline in consumer confidence[3] Legislative Concerns - The failure of the Republican tax and spending proposal highlights internal divisions, raising concerns about potential delays in tax relief and its impact on the economy[3] - The division within the Republican party may hinder fiscal measures aimed at restoring balance, leading to long-term economic concerns[3] Investment Strategy - Investment strategies should adapt to fluctuating market expectations between trade negotiations and economic downturns[3] - Short-term opportunities may arise from increased inventory accumulation in the US, particularly in sectors like apparel and accessories[3] - Attention should be given to long-term investment opportunities in US Treasuries following potential interest rate rebounds[3] Risk Factors - Risks include unexpected inflation rebounds, weaker-than-expected global economic conditions, and geopolitical tensions that could lead to market volatility[3]