Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-05-19 12:52Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, the supply and demand of the pig industry are in a stalemate. The supply has slightly increased but the pressure is average, while the terminal demand has declined. The slaughterhouse's operating rate has decreased, but there is still passive inventory in some areas, and the upcoming Dragon Boat Festival may lead to a short - term increase in demand. Attention should be paid to the potential release of supply, which may put further pressure on prices. However, continuous price drops may cause farmers to be reluctant to sell, hindering price declines [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Disk - The closing price of the main futures contract for live pigs is 13,685 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan; the main contract's open interest is 79,343 lots, up 69 lots; the number of warehouse receipts is 678 lots, down 18 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 14,708 lots, up 394 lots [2] Spot Prices - The spot price of live pigs in Henan Zhumadian is 14,900 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; in Jilin Siping is 14,300 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; in Guangdong Yunfu is 14,800 yuan/ton, down 300 yuan. The main basis for live pigs is 1,215 yuan/ton, down 125 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The monthly live pig inventory is 41,7310,000 heads, down 1,0120,000 heads; the inventory of breeding sows is 4,0390,000 heads, down 270,000 heads [2] Industry Situation - The year - on - year CPI for the month is - 0.1%, up 0.6 percentage points. The spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang is 2,920 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the spot price of corn is 2,373.24 yuan/ton, down 1.66 yuan; the DCE pig feed cost index is 934.59, down 6.73. The monthly output of feed is 27,772,000 tons, down 664,000 tons. The price of binary breeding sows is 1,641 yuan/head, unchanged. The weekly breeding profit for purchased piglets is 48.2 yuan/head, down 10.26 yuan; for self - bred and self - raised pigs is 80.66 yuan/head, down 3.67 yuan. The monthly import volume of pork is 90,000 tons, up 10,000 tons. The average price of white - striped chicken in the main production areas is 13.5 yuan/kg, down 0.2 yuan [2] Downstream Situation - The monthly slaughter volume of designated pig slaughtering enterprises is 3,0630,000 heads, up 8860,000 heads. The monthly total retail sales of consumer goods in the catering industry is 423.5 billion yuan, down 131.4 billion yuan [2] Industry News - According to Mysteel data, the operating rate of slaughtering enterprises in the 20th week is 28.11%, down 0.43 percentage points from last week and 0.10 percentage points year - on - year. The supply side shows that the farmers' slaughter has increased, but the overall rhythm is slow, and the slaughter weight is generally stable. The price of fat pigs is lower than that of standard pigs, increasing the risk of secondary fattening, and the willingness to slaughter may increase later. According to the pig breeding cycle, the sow production capacity is in an increasing cycle in the second and third quarters, and the medium - term supply pressure is increasing [2]