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中美瑞士会谈或产生哪些影响?
中泰证券·2025-05-19 13:03
  1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Sino - US trade friction has shown substantial easing after the Geneva economic and trade talks. The two sides announced a 90 - day suspension of new tariffs, retained some low - level tax rates, and established a follow - up dialogue mechanism, with China taking the leading role in this round of negotiations [4]. - Although the "reciprocal tariffs" suspension is beyond expectations, the comprehensive tax rate between China and the US remains at a relatively high level. If the 24% tariff is re - implemented later, the US's comprehensive tariff on China may still remain above 50% [4]. - In the short term, the narrative of "rising in the East and falling in the West" is strengthened, and risk appetite is repaired. However, there are still structural differences, and the room for tariff reduction in the medium and long term is limited [4][5]. - The market index is expected to maintain strong resilience. Funds are expected to rotate around sub - sectors with high first - quarter report performance and medium - term industrial trends, and investors are advised to make low - level layouts in relevant sub - sectors [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - Market Performance: Most major market indices rose last week, with the ChiNext 50 having a relatively large increase of 2.00%. Among major industries, the financial index and optional consumption index performed relatively well, with weekly changes of 1.91% and 1.69% respectively, while the information technology index and telecommunications service index performed weakly, with weekly changes of - 0.84% and - 0.55% respectively. Among the 30 Shenwan primary industries, 19 industries rose, with beauty care, non - bank finance, and automobiles having relatively large increases of 3.08%, 2.49%, and 2.40% respectively, and computer, national defense and military industry, and media having relatively large declines of 1.26%, 1.18%, and 0.77% respectively [8][16][18]. - Trading Heat: The average daily trading volume of the Wind All - A Index last week was 12662.67 billion yuan (the previous value was 13534.26 billion yuan), which was at a relatively high historical level (84.90% of the three - year historical quantile) [20]. - Valuation Tracking: As of May 16, 2025, the valuation (PE_TTM) of the Wind All - A Index was 19.05, an increase of 0.14 from the previous week, and it was at the 66.90% quantile of the historical level (in the past 5 years). Among the 30 Shenwan primary industries, 18 industries' valuations (PE_TTM) recovered [25]. Market Observation - How the market may evolve after the Sino - US talks in Switzerland: The Sino - US trade friction has eased, but there are still structural differences. The current tariff "cooling" is more like a "temporary truce", and the tariff pressure may rise again in the future. In the short term, it can boost investors' risk appetite [4][5]. - Investment Recommendations: The market index is expected to maintain strong resilience. Investors are advised to make low - level layouts in sub - sectors such as public utilities and other dividend - type assets, AI upstream and Hang Seng Technology leaders, gold, nuclear power equipment, military industry, and pet and beauty related to the consumption downgrade of young people. They should also pay attention to high - quality leading stocks in the CSI 300 whose institutional allocation concentration is significantly lower than the index component ratio [5]. Economic Calendar - The report mentions to pay attention to global economic data, but specific data is not provided [27]