房地产1-4月月报：投资销售两端走弱，止跌回稳仍是政策主基调-20250519

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the real estate sector, indicating a belief in potential recovery despite current weaknesses in investment and sales [4][22][36]. Core Insights - The investment and sales sectors are both experiencing declines, with a focus on stabilizing the market as the main policy direction. The report anticipates that the recovery in investment will be slower than in previous cycles [4][21][36]. - The report highlights that the sales sector is currently in a bottoming phase, with expectations for policy support to drive demand recovery. However, supply constraints may limit sales recovery in the short term [4][36]. Investment Analysis Summary Investment Sector - From January to April 2025, real estate development investment totaled 27,730 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 10.3%, with April alone seeing an 11.3% decline [5][21]. - New construction and completion rates also fell significantly, with new starts down 23.8% and completions down 16.9% year-on-year [21][22]. - The report predicts a continued weak investment environment, with forecasts for 2025 indicating a 9.9% decline in investment, 9.7% in new starts, and 22.6% in completions [4][21]. Sales Sector - The total sales area for real estate from January to April 2025 was 280 million square meters, down 2.8% year-on-year, with April sales area declining by 2.1% [22][36]. - The total sales revenue for the same period was 2.7 trillion yuan, reflecting a 3.2% decrease year-on-year, with April alone seeing a 6.7% drop [22][36]. - The average selling price of properties decreased by 0.4% year-on-year, indicating a challenging pricing environment [35][36]. Funding Sector - Total funding sources for real estate development amounted to 3.3 trillion yuan from January to April 2025, down 4.1% year-on-year, with a 5.3% decline in April alone [37][39]. - Domestic loans showed a positive trend with a 0.8% increase year-on-year, while self-raised funds and other sources saw declines [37][39]. - The report suggests that while funding conditions are expected to improve gradually due to policy easing, the overall funding environment remains tight [4][37].