关税谈判利好落地后等待内需刺激政策

Market Performance Review - A-shares experienced a week of initial gains followed by declines, with a shift towards large-cap stocks. The major indices mostly rose, with the CSI A50 up by 1.61%, while the STAR 50 continued its downward trend. The large-cap style outperformed small and mid-cap stocks significantly this week [12][13]. A-share Investor Sentiment and Trading - The investor sentiment in A-shares has continued to decline, with the personal investor sentiment index showing a 7-day moving average of -9.9% as of May 17, down from 8.8% on May 10. This indicates that investor sentiment has entered a negative zone [4][15]. - The financing trading volume has remained stagnant, with cumulative net purchases remaining unchanged. The proportion of financing transactions in the overall A-share market has slightly increased, reflecting a continued low enthusiasm among personal investors [18][20]. Future Outlook and Investment Views - The outlook for A-shares suggests that sentiment recovery requires a catalyst, particularly the introduction of domestic demand stimulus policies. The recent phase of the US-China trade talks is a positive development for the domestic macroeconomic stability and the valuation recovery of the export chain, but further sentiment recovery in A-shares hinges on more proactive domestic demand policies [5][20]. - In terms of asset allocation, the recent interest rate cuts have enhanced the cost-effectiveness of dividend stocks. It is recommended to focus on pure dividend stocks such as banks, railways, and electricity. However, the timing for investing in consumer stocks should be approached with caution until clear domestic demand stimulus policies are announced [5][21].